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The Limits and Consequences of Population Policy: Evidence from China’s Wan Xi Shao Campaign

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  • Kimberly Singer Babiarz
  • Paul Ma
  • Grant Miller
  • Shige Song

Abstract

Prior to the famous One Child Policy, China’s total fertility rate declined by more than 50% during the 1970s - one of the most rapid sustained fertility declines documented in modern history. Coinciding with this transition was China’s first national population policy, Wan Xi Shao, also known as the Longer, Later Fewer (LLF) campaign. Studying LLF’s contribution to fertility and fertility strategies favoring sons, we find that the campaign i) reduced China’s total fertility rate by 0.88 births per woman (explaining 27% of China’s modern fertility decline), ii) doubled the use of male-biased fertility stopping rules, and iii) promoted postnatal selection (implying 200,000 previously unrecognized missing girls). Considering Chinese population policy to be extreme in global experience, our paper demonstrates the limits of population policy in explaining demographic transitions— and its potential human costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly Singer Babiarz & Paul Ma & Grant Miller & Shige Song, 2018. "The Limits and Consequences of Population Policy: Evidence from China’s Wan Xi Shao Campaign," NBER Working Papers 25130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25130
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu Qiang & Fernando Rios-Avila & Han Jiqin, 2020. "Is China's Low Fertility Rate Caused by the Population Control Policy?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_943, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Bansak, Cynthia & Dziadula, Eva & Wang, Sophie Xuefei, 2024. "How China's "Later, Longer, Fewer" Campaign Extends Life Expectancy: A Study of Intergenerational Support for Elderly Parents," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1403, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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