IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/24817.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

I investigate whether countries that use unconventional monetary policy (UMP) experience export booms. I use a popular gravity model of trade which requires neither the exogeneity of UMP, nor instrumental variables for UMP. In practice, countries that engage in UMP experience a drop in exports vis-á-vis countries that are not engaged in such policies, holding other things constant. Quantitative easing is associated with exports that are about 10% lower to countries not engaged in UMP; this amount is significantly different from zero and similar to the effect of negative nominal interest rates. Thus, there is no evidence that countries have gained export markets through unconventional monetary policy; currency wars that have been launched have also been lost. UMP is also associated with a comparable drop in imports and exchange rates, suggesting that countries engage in UMP when they are experiencing adverse macroeconomic shocks concurrent with those that eviscerate international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose, 2018. "Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports," NBER Working Papers 24817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24817
    Note: IFM ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w24817.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wieladek, Tomasz & Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: the story so far," CEPR Discussion Papers 11691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Arteta,Carlos & Kose,Ayhan & Stocker,Marc & Taskin,Temel, 2016. "Negative interest rate policies : sources and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7791, The World Bank.
    3. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2020. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 693-719, September.
    2. Salvador Gil‐Pareja & Rafael Llorca‐Vivero & Jordi Paniagua, 2020. "Trade law and trade flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 681-704, March.
    3. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 0. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    4. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2022. "Your Pain, My Gain? Estimating the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-698, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    5. Cuadros, Ana & Martín-Montaner, Joan & Paniagua, Jordi, 2019. "Migration and FDI: The role of job skills," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 318-332.
    6. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2022. "Your Pain, My Gain? On the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264095, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Ana Cuadros & Antonio Navas & Jordi Paniagua, 2022. "Moving ideas across borders: Foreign inventors, patents and FDI," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3652-3678, December.
    8. David KRIZEK & Josef BRCAK, 2021. "Support for export as a non-standard Central Bank policy: foreign exchange interventions in the case of the Czech Republic," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12, pages 191-218, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ugo Panizza & Charles Wyplosz, 2018. "The Folk Theorem of Decreasing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: What Do the Data Say?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(1), pages 71-107, March.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 63, december.
    5. Jules Hugot & Camilo Umana Dajud, 2016. "Trade costs and the Suez and Panama Canals," Working Papers 2016-29, CEPII research center.
    6. Jose Asturias & Manuel García-Santana & Roberto Ramos, 2019. "Competition and the Welfare Gains from Transportation Infrastructure: Evidence from the Golden Quadrilateral of India," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(6), pages 1881-1940.
    7. Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2017. "Aggregating from Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade," NBER Working Papers 24051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Cheptea, Angela & Emlinger, Charlotte & Latouche, Karine, 2014. "Do exporting firms benefit from retail internationalization? Evidence from France," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182706, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Pauly, Stefan & Stipanicic, Fernando, 2021. "The creation and diffusion of knowledge: Evidence from the Jet Age," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2112, CEPREMAP.
    10. Lodefalk, Magnus & Kyvik Nordås, Hildegunn, 2017. "Trading firms and trading costs in services: The case of Sweden," Working Papers 2017:4, Örebro University, School of Business.
    11. Ricardo Reis, 2016. "Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens?," Discussion Papers 1701, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    12. Markus Brueckner & Ngo Van Long & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2020. "Non-Gravity Trade," Globalization Institute Working Papers 388, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Shuo Liu & Dimitri Migrow, 2019. "Designing organizations in volatile markets," ECON - Working Papers 319, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    14. İshak Demi̇r & Burak A. Eroğlu & Seçi̇l Yildirim‐Karaman, 2022. "Heterogeneous Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the Bond Yields across the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1425-1457, August.
    15. Sonali Chowdhry & Julian Hinz & Katrin Kamin, 2022. "Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes," RSCAS Working Papers 2022/62, European University Institute.
    16. Marcus Hagedorn, 2017. "An Equilibrium Theory of Determinate Nominal Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Asset Flows," 2017 Meeting Papers 1310, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Edward Nelson, 2019. "Karl Brunner and U.K. Monetary Debate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Léa Marchal & Clément Nedoncelle, 2019. "Immigrants, occupations and firm export performance," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1480-1509, November.
    19. Evgeny N. Smirnov & Sergey A. Lukyanov, 2021. "Instability of international trade and approaches to optimal regulation," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 12(5), pages 21-31, November.
    20. Maria Cipollina & Luca De Benedictis & Luca Salvatici & Claudio Vicarelli, 2016. "Policy Measurement And Multilateral Resistance In Gravity Models," Working Papers LuissLab 16130, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24817. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.