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The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve

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  • Olivier Coibion
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Rupal Kamdar

Abstract

This paper argues for a careful (re)consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling, the surveyed empirical micro-evidence appears increasingly at odds with the full-information rational expectation assumption. We explore models of expectation formation that can potentially explain why and how survey data deviate from full-information rational expectations. Using the New Keynesian Phillips curve as an extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise puzzling shortcomings that arise under the assumption of full-information rational expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2017. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 23304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23304
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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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