IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20494.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Bond Market: An Inflation-Targeter's Best Friend

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between inflation and the existence of a publicly-traded, long-maturity, nominal, domestic-currency bond market. Bond holders suffer from inflation and could be a potent anti-inflationary force; I ask whether their presence is apparent empirically. I use a panel data approach, examining the difference in inflation before and after the introduction of a bond market. My primary focus is on countries with inflation targeting regimes, though I also examine countries with hard fixed exchange rates and other monetary regimes. Inflation-targeting countries with a bond market experience inflation approximately three to four percentage points lower than those without a bond market. This effect is economically and statistically significant; it is also insensitive to a variety of estimation strategies, including using political and fiscal instrumental variables. The existence of a bond market has little effect on inflation in other monetary regimes, as do indexed or foreign-denominated bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose, 2014. "The Bond Market: An Inflation-Targeter's Best Friend," NBER Working Papers 20494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20494
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20494.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Surprising similarities: Recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 5-27.
    2. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    3. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
    4. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    5. de Vries,Jan & van der Woude,Ad, 1997. "The First Modern Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521570619, September.
    6. Missale, Alessandro & Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1994. "The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 309-319, March.
    7. de Vries,Jan & van der Woude,Ad, 1997. "The First Modern Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521578257, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.
    2. Fufa, Tolina & Kim, Jaebeom, 2018. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Evidence from more homogeneous panels," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 504-517.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Galina Hale & Tümer Kapan & Camelia Minoiu & Philip Strahan, 2020. "Shock Transmission Through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effects," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(10), pages 4839-4882.
    2. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2015. "Domestic bond markets and inflation," Working Paper Series 2015-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2018. "Bond Vigilantes and Inflation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 263-300, March.
    4. Fratzscher, Marcel & Grosse-Steffen, Christoph & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Inflation targeting as a shock absorber," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Gonçola Monteiro & Alvaro Pereira, 2006. "From Growth Spurts to Sustained Growth," Discussion Papers 06/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Studer, Roman, 2008. "India and the Great Divergence: Assessing the Efficiency of Grain Markets in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century India," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 393-437, June.
    7. Wallis, Patrick, 2010. "Exotic drugs and English medicine: England’s drug trade, c.1550-c.1800," Economic History Working Papers 28577, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    8. Berganza, Juan Carlos & Broto, Carmen, 2012. "Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 428-444.
    9. Broadberry, Stephen & Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2011. "Is Anonymity the Missing Link Between Commercial and Industrial Revolution?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 974, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Broadberry Stephen, 2012. "Recent Developments in the Theory of Very Long Run Growth: A Historical Appraisal," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 53(1), pages 277-306, May.
    11. Zuijderduijn, Jaco, 2016. "The Ages of Women and Men : Life Cycles, Family and Investment in the Fifteenth-Century Low Countries," Lund Papers in Economic History 150, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    12. Peter Foldvari & Bas van Leeuwen & Jan Luiten van Zanden, 2012. "The contribution of migration to economic development in Holland and the Netherlands 1510-1900," Working Papers 0025, Utrecht University, Centre for Global Economic History.
    13. Militiades N. Georgiou & Nicholas Kyriazis & Emmanouil M. L. Economou, 2015. "Democracy, Political Stability and Economic performance. A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-18.
    14. Lionel Artige & Carmen Camacho & David De La Croix, 2004. "Wealth Breeds Decline: Reversals of Leadership and Consumption Habits," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 423-449, December.
    15. Ken Tabata, 2013. "The Expansion of the Commercial Sector and the Child Quantity-Quality Transition in a Malthusian World," Discussion Paper Series 105, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2013.
    16. Mikolaj Malinowski, 2013. "East of Eden: Polish living standards in a European perspective, ca. 1500-1800," Working Papers 0043, Utrecht University, Centre for Global Economic History.
    17. Broadberry, Stephen & Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2017. "Anonymity, efficiency wages and technological progress," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 379-394.
    18. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    19. Mark Koyama, 2009. "The Price of Time and Labour Supply: From the Black Death to the Industrious Revolution," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _078, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Stringham, Edward, 2003. "The extralegal development of securities trading in seventeenth-century Amsterdam," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 321-344.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20494. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.