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Trust, Values and False Consensus

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  • Jeffrey Butler
  • Paola Giuliano
  • Luigi Guiso

Abstract

Trust beliefs are heterogeneous across individuals and, at the same time, persistent across generations. We investigate one mechanism yielding these dual patterns: false consensus. In the context of a trust game experiment, we show that individuals extrapolate from their own type when forming trust beliefs about the same pool of potential partners - i.e., more (less) trustworthy individuals form more optimistic (pessimistic) trust beliefs - and that this tendency continues to color trust beliefs after several rounds of game-play. Moreover, we show that one's own type/trustworthiness can be traced back to the values parents transmit to their children during their upbringing. In a second closely-related experiment, we show the economic impact of mis-calibrated trust beliefs stemming from false consensus. Miscalibrated beliefs lower participants' experimental trust game earnings by about 20 percent on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Butler & Paola Giuliano & Luigi Guiso, 2012. "Trust, Values and False Consensus," NBER Working Papers 18460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18460
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    1. On false consensus
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2014-10-28 19:11:06

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    5. Toussaert, Séverine, 2017. "Intention-based reciprocity and signaling of intentions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69803, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Ying Sophie Huang & Buhui Qiu & Jiajia Wu & Juan Yao, 2023. "Institutional distance, geographic distance, and Chinese venture capital investment: do networks and trust matter?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1795-1844, December.
    7. Berggren, Niclas & Nilsson, Therese, 2015. "Globalization and the transmission of social values: The case of tolerance," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 371-389.
    8. Stone, Daniel, 2018. "Just a big misunderstanding? Bias and Bayesian affective polarization," SocArXiv 58sru, Center for Open Science.
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    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics

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