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Economic Preparation for Retirement

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  • Michael D. Hurd
  • Susann Rohwedder

Abstract

We define and estimate measures of economic preparation for retirement based on a complete inventory of economic resources while taking into account the risk of living to advanced old age and the risk of high out-of-pocket spending for health care services. We ask whether, in a sample of 66-69 year-olds, observed economic resources could support with high probability a life-cycle consumption path anchored at the initial level of consumption until the end of life. We account for taxes, widowing, differential mortality and out-of-pocket health spending risk. We find that 71% of persons in our target age group are adequately prepared according to our definitions, but there is substantial variation by observable characteristics: 80% of married persons are adequately prepared compared with just 55% of single persons. We estimate that a reduction in Social Security benefits of 30 percent would reduce the fraction adequately prepared by 7.8 percentage points among married persons and by as much as 10.7 percentage points among single persons.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Economic Preparation for Retirement," NBER Working Papers 17203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "The Adequacy of Economic Resources in Retirement," Working Papers wp184, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    2. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2009. "The Level and Risk of Out-of-Pocket Health Care Spending," Working Papers wp218, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    3. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Economic Preparation for Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Investigations in the Economics of Aging, pages 77-113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. F. Thomas Juster & Richard Suzman, 1995. "An Overview of the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30, pages 7-56.
    5. Daniel Feenberg & Elisabeth Coutts, 1993. "An introduction to the TAXSIM model," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 189-194.
    6. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2013. "Wealth Dynamics and Active Saving at Older Ages," NBER Chapters, in: Improving the Measurement of Consumer Expenditures, pages 388-413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David A. Wise, 2004. "Introduction to "Perspectives on the Economics of Aging"," NBER Chapters, in: Perspectives on the Economics of Aging, pages 1-16, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Peter Adams & Michael D. Hurd & Daniel L. McFadden & Angela Merrill & Tiago Ribeiro, 2004. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise? Tests for Direct Causal Paths between Health and Socioeconomic Status," NBER Chapters, in: Perspectives on the Economics of Aging, pages 415-526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2009. "Methodological Innovations in Collecting Spending Data: The HRS Consumption and Activities Mail Survey," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 30(Special I), pages 435-459, December.
    10. Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2004. "Aging and Housing Equity: Another Look," NBER Chapters, in: Perspectives on the Economics of Aging, pages 127-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
    12. David A. Wise, 2004. "Perspectives on the Economics of Aging," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise04-1.
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    1. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Economic Preparation for Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Investigations in the Economics of Aging, pages 77-113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Wei Zheng & Zining Liu & Ruo Jia, 2019. "How private sector participation improves retirement preparation: A case from China," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(1), pages 123-147, January.
    3. Beshears, John & Choi, James J. & Laibson, David & Madrian, Brigitte C. & Zeldes, Stephen P., 2014. "What makes annuitization more appealing?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 2-16.
    4. Ross Hikida & Jason Perry, 2020. "FinTech Trends in the United States: Implications for Household Finance," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 16(4), pages 1-32, August.
    5. Meryl Motika, 2019. "Personality Traits and Low Wealth at Retirement," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 464-476, June.
    6. Frederick Vettese, 2016. "How Spending Declines with Age, and the Implications for Workplace Pension Plans," e-briefs 238, C.D. Howe Institute.
    7. Julie Zissimopoulos & Johanna Thunell & Stipica Mudrazija, 2020. "Parental Income and Wealth Loss and Transfers to Their Young Adult Children," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 316-331, June.
    8. Congressional Budget Office, 2017. "Measuring the Adequacy of Retirement Income: A Primer," Reports 53191, Congressional Budget Office.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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