IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/17123.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Irving Fisher and Price-Level Targeting in Austria: Was Silver the Answer?

Author

Listed:
  • Richard C.K. Burdekin
  • Kris James Mitchener
  • Marc D. Weidenmier

Abstract

The question of price level versus inflation targeting remains controversial. Disagreement concerns, not so much the desirability of price stability, but rather the means of achieving it. Irving Fisher argued for a commodity dollar standard where the purchasing power of money was fixed by indexing it to a basket of commodities. We show that movements in the price of silver closely track the movements in overall prices during the classical gold standard era. The one-to-one relationship between paper and silver bonds suggests that a simple "silver rule" could have sufficed to fix the purchasing power of money.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard C.K. Burdekin & Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2011. "Irving Fisher and Price-Level Targeting in Austria: Was Silver the Answer?," NBER Working Papers 17123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17123
    Note: DAE ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17123.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smets, Frank & Vestin, David & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2007. "Is time ripe for price level path stability?," Working Paper Series 818, European Central Bank.
    2. Marc Flandreau, 2003. "The Bank, the States, and the Market : an Austro-Hungarian Tale for Euroland, 1867-1914," Post-Print hal-03397971, HAL.
    3. Flandreau, Marc & Komlos, John, 2006. "Target zones in theory and history: Credibility, efficiency, and policy autonomy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1979-1995, November.
    4. David E.W. Laidler, 2016. "The Golden Age of the Quantity Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 4959.
    5. John Komlos & Marc Flandreau, "undated". "Core or Periphery? The Credibility of the Austro-Hungarian Currency, 1867-1913," Articles by John Komlos 4, Department of Economics, University of Munich.
    6. Charles L. Evans, 2012. "Monetary Policy in a Low‐Inflation Environment: Developing a State‐Contingent Price‐Level Target," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 147-155, February.
    7. Siklos,Pierre L. & Bohl,Martin T. & Wohar,Mark E. (ed.), 2010. "Challenges in Central Banking," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521199292, January.
    8. Alquist, Ron, 2010. "How important is liquidity risk for sovereign bond risk premia? Evidence from the London stock exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 219-229, November.
    9. Dowd, Kevin, 1996. "The Analytics of Bimetallism," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(3), pages 281-297, September.
    10. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262513374, April.
    11. Berg, Claes & Jonung, Lars, 1999. "Pioneering price level targeting: The Swedish experience 1931-1937," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-551, June.
    12. Perez, Stephen J & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "Inflationary Expectations and the Fisher Effect prior to World War I," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 947-965, December.
    13. Giuseppe Tullio & Jürgen Wolters, 2007. "Monetary Policy in Austria–Hungary, 1876–1913: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank’s Discount Rate and the Liquidity Ratio," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 521-537, November.
    14. Schulze, Max-Stephan, 2007. "Origins of catch-up failure: Comparative productivity growth in the Habsburg Empire, 1870–1910," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 189-218, August.
    15. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Controlling the Price Level," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 93-112, January.
    16. Jonung, Lars, 1979. "Knut wicksell's norm of price stabilization and Swedish monetary policy in the 1930's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 459-496, October.
    17. Marc Flandreau, 2001. "The Bank, the States, and the Market: An Austro-Hungarian Tale for Euroland, 1867-1914," Working Papers 43, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    18. Philip Cagan, 1982. "Current Problems of Monetary Policy: Would the Gold Standard Help?," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 835803, September.
    19. Bordo Michael D. & Dittmar Robert D & Gavin William T., 2007. "Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, August.
    20. George A. Kahn, 2009. "Beyond inflation targeting: should central banks target the price level?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q III), pages 35-64.
    21. Jobst, Clemens, 2009. "Market leader: the Austro-Hungarian Bank and the making of foreign exchange intervention, 1896–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 287-318, December.
    22. Robert E. Hall, 1982. "Explorations in the Gold Standard and Related Policies for Stabilizing the Dollar," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 111-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Robert E. Hall, 1982. "Inflation: Causes and Effects," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hall82-1.
    24. Frieden, Jeffry A., 1997. "Monetary Populism in Nineteenth-Century America: An Open Economy Interpretation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 367-395, June.
    25. Drake, Louis S., 1985. "Reconstruction of a bimetallic price level," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 194-219, April.
    26. Burdekin, Richard C.K., 2008. "US pressure on China: Silver flows, deflation, and the 1934 Shanghai credit crunch," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 170-182, June.
    27. F. W. Taussig, 1913. "The Plan for a Compensated Dollar," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 27(3), pages 401-416.
    28. Sumner, Scott B, 1990. "The Forerunners of "New Monetary Economics" Proposals to Stabilize the Unit of Account," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 109-118, February.
    29. Frederic Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "A Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 4, pages 171-220, Central Bank of Chile.
    30. Daniel Leigh, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 833-857, August.
    31. Francois R. Velde, 2002. "The crime of 1873: back to the scene," Working Paper Series WP-02-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    32. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price-Level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 277-295, August.
    33. Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
    34. Schulze, Max-Stephan, 2007. "Origins of catch-up failure: comparative productivity growth in the Hapsburg Empire, 1870-1910," Economic History Working Papers 22318, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bordo, Michael D. & Rockoff, Hugh, 2013. "The Influence Of Irving Fisher On Milton Friedman’S Monetary Economics," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 153-177, June.
    2. Max Gillman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Trends among Visegrád Countries, EU Balkans, and the U.S., 1991-2021," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(2), pages 1-20.
    3. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiri Bohm & Jan Filacek, 2012. "Price-Level Targeting–A Real Alternative to Inflation Targeting?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(1), pages 2-26, February.
    2. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    3. Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Comparing inflation and price-level targeting: A comprehensive review of the literature," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    4. Giannoni, Marc P., 2014. "Optimal interest-rate rules and inflation stabilization versus price-level stabilization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-129.
    5. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:809-823 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Iulian Vasile Popescu, 2012. "Price-Level Targeting – A Viable Alternative To Inflation Targeting?," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(4), pages 809-823, December.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    9. Olena Kostyshyna & Luba Petersen & Jing Yang, 2022. "A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation," NBER Working Papers 30530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    11. Mitra, Kaushik & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2014. "Targeting nominal GDP or prices: Guidance and expectation dynamics," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2014, Bank of Finland.
    12. Guender, Alfred V. & Oh, Do Yoon, 2006. "Price stability through price-level targeting or inflation targeting? A tale of two experiments," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 373-391.
    13. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Winkler, Fabian, 2022. "Learning and misperception of makeup strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Sergio Rossi, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sacrifice Ratios : The Case of the European Central Bank," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 69-85.
    15. Andrew Jalil & Gisela Rua, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Váry, Miklós, 2021. "The long-run real effects of monetary shocks: Lessons from a hybrid post-Keynesian-DSGE-agent-based menu cost model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    17. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    18. Rebeca Gomez Betancourt & Jérôme de Boyer des Roches, 2013. "Origins and developments of Irving Fisher's compensated dollar plan," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 261-283, April.
    19. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    20. Cole, Stephen J., 2018. "The effectiveness of central bank forward guidance under inflation and price-level targeting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 146-161.
    21. Vojtech Molnar, 2022. "Price Level Targeting with Imperfect Rationality: A Heuristic Approach," Working Papers 2022/1, Czech National Bank.
    22. W. William Woolsey, 1992. "The Search for Macroeconomic Stability: Comment on Sumner," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 475-485, Fall.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.