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Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule

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  • James D. Hamilton
  • Seth Pruitt
  • Scott Borger

Abstract

We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. We estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form their expectations by linking news' effects on forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy. Evidence between 1994 and 2007 indicates that the market-perceived Federal Reserve policy rule changed: the output response vanished, and the inflation response path became more gradual but larger in long-run magnitude. These response coefficient estimates are robust to measurement and theoretical issues with both potential output and the inflation target.

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2010. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 16412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16412
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    Cited by:

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    3. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    4. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "Analyzing the Taylor Rule with Wavelet Lenses," NIPE Working Papers 18/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    5. Lapp, John S. & Pearce, Douglas K., 2012. "The impact of economic news on expected changes in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 362-379.
    6. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 2213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Do people understand monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 108-123.
    8. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Luca Rossi, 2020. "Monetary policy gradualism and the nonlinear effects of monetary shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1275, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3148-3185.
    10. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2017. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 585-602, June.
    11. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Ishak Demir, 2014. "Keep your Word: Time-varying Inflation Targets and Inflation Targeting Performance," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(2), pages 160-182, March.
    12. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.
    13. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 323-340, March.
    14. Ma, Yong & Li, Shushu, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of China's monetary policy transparency: A New Keynesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 236-248.
    15. Vijay A Murik, 2013. "Measuring monetary policy expectations," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, April.
    16. Christopher Healy & Chengcheng Jia, 2024. "Financial Markets’ Perceptions of the FOMC’s Data-Dependent Monetary Policy," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(03), pages 1-5, February.
    17. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2018. "Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 122-137.
    18. Gorodnichenko, Y & Coibion, O, 2016. "How inertial is monetary policy? implications for the fed’s exit strategy," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2qc6f09b, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    19. Klodiana Istrefi, 2019. "In Fed Watchers’ Eyes: Hawks, Doves and Monetary Policy," Working papers 725, Banque de France.
    20. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Germana Giombini & Edgar J. Sánchez-Carrera, 2023. "Climateflation and monetary policy in an environmental OLG growth model," Department of Economics University of Siena 905, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    21. Haitao Li & Tao Li & Cindy Yu, 2013. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules with Switching Regimes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(10), pages 2278-2294, October.
    22. Linda S. Goldberg & Christian Grisse, 2013. "Time variation in asset price responses to macro announcements," Staff Reports 626, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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