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Testing Limits to Policy Reversal: Evidence from Indian Privatizations

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  • Siddhartha G. Dastidar
  • Raymond Fisman
  • Tarun Khanna

Abstract

We examine the effect of regime change on privatization using the 2004 election surprise in India. The pro-reform BJP was unexpectedly defeated by a less reformist coalition. Stock prices of government-controlled companies that had been slated for definite privatization by the BJP dropped by 3.5 percent relative to private firms. Surprisingly, government-controlled companies that were only under study for possible privatization fell by 7.5 percent relative to private firms. We interpret this as evidence of investor belief of policy irreversibility, where reforms may reach a stage beyond which future regimes have difficulty reversing those policies. Further analysis suggests that layoffs, combined with the privatization announcement, served as a credible commitment to the government's privatization agenda.

Suggested Citation

  • Siddhartha G. Dastidar & Raymond Fisman & Tarun Khanna, 2007. "Testing Limits to Policy Reversal: Evidence from Indian Privatizations," NBER Working Papers 13427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13427
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    Cited by:

    1. Helen Wei Hu & Lin Cui & Preet S Aulakh, 2019. "State capitalism and performance persistence of business group-affiliated firms: A comparative study of China and India," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 50(2), pages 193-222, March.
    2. Alvaro Cuervo-Cazurra & Ajai Gaur & Deeksha Singh, 2019. "Pro-market institutions and global strategy: The pendulum of pro-market reforms and reversals," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 50(4), pages 598-632, June.
    3. Boubakri, Narjess & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Guedhami, Omrane & Saffar, Walid, 2011. "The political economy of residual state ownership in privatized firms: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 244-258, April.
    4. Neeru Chaudhry & Chris Veld, 2023. "Political uncertainty and investments by private and state‐owned enterprises," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 584-614, September.
    5. Huang, Zhangkai & Li, Lixing & Ma, Guangrong & Qian, Jun, 2021. "The reversal of privatization in China: A political economy perspective," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Elitsa R Banalieva & Alvaro Cuervo-Cazurra & Ravi Sarathy, 2018. "Dynamics of pro-market institutions and firm performance," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(7), pages 858-880, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • L33 - Industrial Organization - - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise - - - Comparison of Public and Private Enterprise and Nonprofit Institutions; Privatization; Contracting Out

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