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Skewness Risk and Bond Prices

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  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

Abstract

Statistical evidence is reported that even outside disaster periods, agents face negative consumption skewness, as well as positive inflation skewness. Quantitative implications of skewness risk for nominal loan contracts in a pure exchange economy are derived. Key modeling assumptions are Epstein-Zin preferences for traders and asymmetric distributions for consumption and inflation innovations. The model is solved using a third-order perturbation and estimated by the simulated method of moments. Results show that skewness risk accounts for 6 to 7 percent of the risk premia depending on the bond maturity.

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  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2012. "Skewness Risk and Bond Prices," Cahiers de recherche 2012-14, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2012-14
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/8860
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    2. Cezar, Rafael & Gigout, Timothée & Tripier, Fabien, 2020. "Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2024. "Asset prices in a production network," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2022. "Relative Risk Aversion: A Meta-Analysis," MetaArXiv b8uhe, Center for Open Science.
    5. Gaygysyz Guljanov & Willi Mutschler & Mark Trede, 2022. "Pruned Skewed Kalman Filter and Smoother: With Application to the Yield Curve," CQE Working Papers 10122, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    6. Gigout, Timothee, 2019. "Firm dynamics in an global and uncertain economy," MPRA Paper 96569, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2019.
    7. Jean-Jacques Forneron, 2019. "A Sieve-SMM Estimator for Dynamic Models," Papers 1902.01456, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    8. Firouzi Naeim, Peyman & Rahimzadeh, golnoush, 2013. "Inflation Skewness and Price Indexation," MPRA Paper 45968, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure of interest rates; bond premia; nonlinear dynamic models; simulated method of moments.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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