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Are critical slowing down indicators useful to detect financial crises?

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Abstract

In this article, we consider financial markets as complex dynamical systems, and check whether the critical slowing down indicators can be used as early warning signals to detect a phase transition. Using various rolling windows, we analyze the evolution of three indicators: i) First-order autocorrelation, ii) Variance, and iii) Skewness. Using daily data for ten European stock exchanges plus the United States, and focusing on the Global Financial Crisis, our results are mitigated and depend both on the series used and the indicator. Using the main (log) indices, critical slowing down indicators seem weak to predict to Global Financial Crisis. Using cumulative returns, for almost all countries an increase in variance and skewness does preceed the crisis. However, first-order autocorrelations of both log-indices and cumulative returns do not provide any useful information about the Global Financial Crisis. Thus, only some of the reported critical slowing down indicators may have informational content, and could be used as early warnings

Suggested Citation

  • Hayette Gatfaoui & Isabelle Nagot & Philippe de Peretti, 2016. "Are critical slowing down indicators useful to detect financial crises?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16045, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:16045
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    1. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    2. Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Juanxi Wang, 2019. "Critical slowing down as an early warning signal for financial crises?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1201-1228, October.
    3. Marten Scheffer & Jordi Bascompte & William A. Brock & Victor Brovkin & Stephen R. Carpenter & Vasilis Dakos & Hermann Held & Egbert H. van Nes & Max Rietkerk & George Sugihara, 2009. "Early-warning signals for critical transitions," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7260), pages 53-59, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Haoyu Wen & Massimo Pica Ciamarra & Siew Ann Cheong, 2018. "How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Chengyi Tu & Paolo DOdorico & Samir Suweis, 2018. "Critical slowing down associated with critical transition and risk of collapse in cryptocurrency," Papers 1806.08386, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Financial Crisis; Critical Slowing Down; Complex Dynamical System; Phase Transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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