Effect of Internal Migration on Air and Water Pollution in China

We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Our findings from both the linear and non-linear models suggest that inter-provincial migration has contributed to air and water pollution. Results from the second-generation linear panel data models suggest that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, chemical oxygen demand (COD) increases 0.33-0.58 per cent and sulphur dioxide (SO2) increases 0.15-0.33 per cent. Our results from the non-linear threshold panel model are that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, COD increases 0.2-0.5 per cent and SO2 increases 0.10-0.20 per cent. These estimates mean that over the period 2000-2013 average interprovincial migration was responsible for 7-12.4 per cent of wastewater discharge and 3.2-7 per cent of SO2 emissions in China based on the second-generation linear panel data models and 4.3-10.7 per cent of wastewater discharge and 2.1-4.3 per cent of SO2 emissions based on the non-linear threshold panel model.