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It's the Economy Stupid?

Author

Listed:
  • Cameron, L.
  • Crosby, M.

Abstract

In this paper we examine the impact of macroeconomic conditions on federal electoral performance in twentieth century Australia. We find that the electorate penalises a government for high inflation and high unemployment relative to trend. Real GDP growth and real wage growth were not found to have a systematic relationship with incumbent vote share at the federal level. We also examine the voteshare of the federal incumbent in three electorates: the safe Liberal seat of Kooyong, the safe Labor seat of Melbourne Ports, and the swinging seat of Latrobe. We find some evidence that unemployment affects electoral outcomes in the swinging seat, but no macroeconomic variables affect outcomes in the safe seats.

Suggested Citation

  • Cameron, L. & Crosby, M., 1999. "It's the Economy Stupid?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 699, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:699
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Leigh, 2003. "Randomised Policy Trials," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 10(4), pages 341-354.
    2. Andrew Leigh, 2009. "Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 163-181, April.
    3. Andrew Leigh, 2005. "Economic Voting And Electoral Behavior: How Do Individual, Local, And National Factors Affect The Partisan Choice?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 265-296, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ELECTIONS ; SOCIAL CHOICE ; MACROECONOMICS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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