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Time Varying NAIRU Estimates in Central Europe

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  • Balázs Varga

    (OTP Fund Management and Corvinus University of Budapest)

Abstract

This paper estimates Phillips curve relationships for the data of four Central European countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, using a sample period from the mid-1990s till 2012. For the estimation Gordon’s triangle model is used with the Kalman filter, where the time-varying NAIRU is described as a latent variable following a random walk, and its deviation from the actual unemployment rate affects inflation, among other factors. The inclusion of inflation expectations is found to be statistically significant, albeit it significantly reduces the size and significance of the unemployment gap coefficient. The results show that so far only the Czech Republic and Hungary exhibit a significant inflation-unemployment trade-off, while the results for Poland and Slovakia do not support such a relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Varga, 2013. "Time Varying NAIRU Estimates in Central Europe," Working Papers 1306, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    • Handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:1306
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    File URL: http://web.uni-corvinus.hu/matkg/working_papers/wp_2013_6_varga.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
    3. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & Pete Richardson & Dave Turner, 2003. "Estimating the structural rate of unemployment for the OECD countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2001(2), pages 171-216.
    4. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    5. Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
    6. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
    7. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
    8. Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Japan's Phillips Curve Looks Like Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1326, September.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Benèík, 2022. "United in Diversity. Labor Markets in the CEE Countries," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(4), pages 333-348, April.
    2. Michal Benèík, 2022. "United in Diversity. Labor Markets in the CEE Countries," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(4), pages 333-348, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; Phillips curve; time varying NAIRU; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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