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Life after default: Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings

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  • Silvia Marchesi
  • Tania Masi

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between sovereign debt default and annual GDP growth distinguishing between private and official deals. Using the Synthetic Control Method to analyze 23 official and private defaulters from 1970 to 2017, we fi nd that private and official restructurings are associated to different growth outcomes. Private defaults generate output losses both during the crisis and persisting over time. Conversely, official defaulters do not show a permanent drop in GDP per capita, neither during the crisis nor in its aftermath. We present further evidence for the heterogeneity of the economic impact of debt restructurings by controlling for the severity of the default and distinguishing between debt flow and stock reduction. Using panel data analysis to analyze 548 restructuring episodes, we confi rm that official and private defaults may have different effects on GDP growth and should then be treated differently.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2017. "Life after default: Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Working Papers 370, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:370
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    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2020. "The price of haircuts: private and official default," Development Working Papers 460, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 06 Feb 2020.
    2. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi & Pietro Bomprezzi, 2021. "Is to Forgive to Forget? Sovereign Risk in the Aftermath of a Default," Development Working Papers 475, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    3. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of official debt restructuring: evidence from the Paris Club," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 344-363.
    4. Tamon Asonuma & Marcos Chamon & Aitor Erce & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "Costs of sovereign defaults: Restructuring strategies, bank distress and the capital inflow-credit channel," Working Papers 37, European Stability Mechanism.
    5. Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 416-432.
    6. Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2021. "Life after default. Private and official deals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2019. "Sovereign risk after sovereign restructuring. Private and official default," Working Papers 423, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    8. Calomiris, Charles W. & Tsoulouhas, Theofanis, 2022. "Bailing out conflicted sovereigns," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign defaults; Output losses; Synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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