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Prices, fundamental values and learning

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  • Michele Berardi

Abstract

In this paper we show how uncertainty and learning about fundamental values can lead to excess volatility in prices and to volatility clustering in returns, as observed on real markets. The key assumption is that agents use prices, besides an exogenous signal on long run dividends, to infer fundamental values: as the relative weight on the two signals changes endogenously through learning, price dynamics are a¤ected. In particular, periods of high volatility are periods where agents rely more heavily on prices in predicting fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Berardi, 2015. "Prices, fundamental values and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 214, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:214
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    File URL: http://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr214.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Donato Masciandaro, 2014. "Macroeconomic Ideas, Business Cycles and Economic Policies: One Size Doesn’t Fit All - A Primer," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 14161, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Central Banking and Macroeconomic Ideas: Economics, Politics and History," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1858, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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