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Washington Meets Wall Street: A Closer Examination of the Presidential Cylce Puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Kraussl
  • Andre Lucas
  • David R. Rijsbergen
  • Pieter Jelle van der Sluis
  • Evert B. Vrugt

    (LSF)

Abstract

We show that the annual excess return of the S&P 500 is almost 10 percent higher during the last two years of the presidential cycle than during the first two years. This pattern cannot be explained by business-cycle variables capturing timevarying risk premia, differences in risk levels, or by consumer and investor sentiment. We formally test the presidential election cycle (PEC) hypothesis as the alternative explanation found in the literature for explaining the presidential cycle anomaly. The PEC states that incumbent parties and presidents have an incentive to manipulate the economy (via budget expansions and taxes) to remain in power. We formulate eight empirically-testable propositions relating to the fiscal, monetary, tax, unexpected inflation and political implications of the PEC hypothesis. We do not find statistically significant evidence confirming the PEC hypothesis as a plausible explanation for the presidential cycle effect. The presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets thus remains a puzzle that cannot be easily explained by politicians employing their economic influence to remain in power, as is often believed.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Kraussl & Andre Lucas & David R. Rijsbergen & Pieter Jelle van der Sluis & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Washington Meets Wall Street: A Closer Examination of the Presidential Cylce Puzzle," DEM Discussion Paper Series 13-4, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
  • Handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:13-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political economy; market efficiency; anomalies; calendar effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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