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Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty

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  • Wollmershäuser, Timo

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of simple policy rules in an open economy. By introducing a high degree of exchange rate uncertainty we find that policy rules with an important feedback from movements in the real exchange rate are very robust to uncertainty about the true exchange rate model. A closed economy rule performs badly in most exchange rate specifications. This is in contrast to the findings of many other studies. In our view, this result is due to the fact that these studies assume a known and reliable relationship between the exchange rate and the interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Munich Reprints in Economics 19716, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:19716
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    8. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2007. "The Effects of Joining a Monetary Union on Output and Inflation Variability in Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 8633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    10. Jannsen, Nils & Klein, Melanie, 2011. "The international transmission of euro area monetary policy shocks," Kiel Working Papers 1718, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    21. Bayangos, V.B., 2006. "Exchange rate uncertainty and monetary transmission in the Philippines," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19193, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
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