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The Dismal State of Macroeconomics and the Opportunity for a New Beginning

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  • L. Randall Wray

Abstract

The Queen of England famously asked her economic advisers why none of them had seen "it" (the global financial crisis) coming. Obviously, the answer is complex, but it must include reference to the evolution of macroeconomic theory over the postwar period—from the "Age of Keynes," through the Friedmanian era and the return of Neoclassical economics in a particularly extreme form, and, finally, on to the New Monetary Consensus, with a new version of fine-tuning. The story cannot leave out the parallel developments in finance theory-with its efficient markets hypothesis-and in approaches to regulation and supervision of financial institutions. This paper critically examines these developments and returns to the earlier Keynesian tradition to see what was left out of postwar macro. For example, the synthesis version of Keynes never incorporated true uncertainty or "unknowledge," and thus deviated substantially from Keynes's treatment of expectations in chapters 12 and 17 of the General Theory. It essentially reduced Keynes to sticky wages and prices, with nonneutral money only in the case of fooling. The stagflation of the 1970s ended the great debate between "Keynesians" and "Monetarists" in favor of Milton Friedman's rules, and set the stage for the rise of a succession of increasingly silly theories rooted in pre-Keynesian thought. As Lord Robert Skidelsky (Keynes's biographer) argues, "Rarely in history can such powerful minds have devoted themselves to such strange ideas." By returning to Keynes, this paper attempts to provide a new direction forward.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Randall Wray, 2011. "The Dismal State of Macroeconomics and the Opportunity for a New Beginning," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_652, Levy Economics Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_652
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephanie Bell & L. Randall Wray, "undated". "The War on Poverty After 40 Years: A Minskyan Assessment," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_78, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Dimitri Papadimitriou & L. Randall Wray, 1998. "The Economic Contributions of Hyman Minsky: varieties of capitalism and institutional reform," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 199-225.
    3. Mathew Forstater & L. Randall Wray (ed.), 2008. "Keynes for the Twenty-First Century," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-61113-9, October.
    4. Ferri, Piero & Minsky, Hyman P., 1992. "Market processes and thwarting systems," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 79-91, June.
    5. Bell, Stephanie, 2001. "The Role of the State and the Hierarchy of Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 25(2), pages 149-163, March.
    6. L. Randall Wray, 1998. "Understanding Modern Money," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1668.
    7. Goodhart, Charles A. E., 1998. "The two concepts of money: implications for the analysis of optimal currency areas," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 407-432, August.
    8. Kregel, J A, 1976. "Economic Methodology in the Face of Uncertainty: The Modelling Methods of Keynes and the Post-Keynesians," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(342), pages 209-225, June.
    9. L. Randall Wray, 2009. "The rise and fall of money manager capitalism: a Minskian approach," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(4), pages 807-828, July.
    10. L. Randall Wray, 2004. "The Fed and the New Monetary Consensus: The Case for Rate Hikes, Part Two," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_80, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    12. Wynne Godley & L. Randall Wray, 2000. "Is Goldilocks Doomed?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 201-206, March.
    13. Stephanie Bell, 2000. "Do Taxes and Bonds Finance Government Spending?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 603-620, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christopher A. Hartwell, 2017. "Understanding “Development”: Insights from Some Aspects of Complexity Theory," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 165-190, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient Markets Hypothesis; Keynesian Economics; Orthodoxy; Heterodox Economics; Minsky; Uncertainty; Rational Expectations; New Classical; New Monetary Consensus; Monetary Theory of Production; Effective Demand; Special Properties of Money; the End of Laissez-Faire; Financial Instability Hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A2 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics
    • B15 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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