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Rainfall inequality, trust and civil conflict in Nigeria

Author

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  • Muhammad Kabir Salihu
  • Andrea Guariso

Abstract

Do changes in the distribution of rainfall between ethnic groups increase the risk of armed conflicts within Nigeria? In this paper, we exploit variation in rainfall during the growing season, to study how resource inequality between ethnic groups affects the risks of violent conflicts in Nigeria. Our main results show that a one standard deviation change in between-group rainfall inequality during the growing season increases civil conflicts prevalence in Nigeria by about seven percentage points. This relationship is driven, in part, by declining social capital. Specifically, we demonstrated that an unequal distribution of rainfall between ethnic groups reinforces citizens grievances over government performance and creates mistrust between predominantly farming communities and those engaged in nomadic herding. The analysis highlights the need to develop conflict-sensitive mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the adverse effects of climatic shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Kabir Salihu & Andrea Guariso, 2017. "Rainfall inequality, trust and civil conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 205618510, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:205618510
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    File URL: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/economics/working-papers/LancasterWP2017_029.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Inequality; Rainfall; Trust; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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