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Real exchange rate persistence: the case of the Swiss franc-US dollar rate

Author

Listed:
  • Katarina Juselius

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen University)

  • Katrin Assenmacher

    (Swiss National Bank)

Abstract

Asset prices tend to undergo wide swings around long-run equilibrium values which can have detrimental effects on the real economy. To get a better understanding of how the fi?nancial sector and the real economy interact this paper models the long swings in the Swiss franc-US dollar foreign currency market using the I(2) Cointegrated VAR model. The results show strong evidence of self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms in the Swiss-US foreign exchange market consistent with the observed pronounced persistence in the Swiss-US parity conditions. Generally, the results provide support for models allowing expectations formation in fi?nancial markets to be based on imperfect information.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius & Katrin Assenmacher, 2014. "Real exchange rate persistence: the case of the Swiss franc-US dollar rate," Discussion Papers 14-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1426
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    2. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Raoul Philipse, 2013. "Evolutionary selection of expectations in positive and negative feedback markets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 663-688, July.
    3. Nielsen, Heino Bohn & Rahbek, Anders, 2007. "The Likelihood Ratio Test For Cointegration Ranks In The I(2) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 615-637, August.
    4. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2013. "Change and expectations in macroeconomic models: recognizing the limits to knowability," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 118-138, June.
    5. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
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    8. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
    9. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
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    11. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina & Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael, 2010. "Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 117-129, September.
    12. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agents Models: two simple examples, forthcoming In: Lines, M. (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamical Systems in Economics, CISM Courses and Lectures, Springer, 2005, pp.131-164," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    13. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
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    Cited by:

    1. H. Peter Boswijk & Paolo Paruolo, 2017. "Likelihood Ratio Tests of Restrictions on Common Trends Loading Matrices in I(2) VAR Systems," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-17, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long swings; Imperfect Knowledge; I(2) analysis; Self-reinforcing feed-back;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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