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Identification of financial factors in economic fluctuations

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Abstract

We estimate demand, supply, monetary, investment and nancial shocks in a VAR identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions on US data. We find that financial shocks are major drivers of fluctuations in output, stock prices and investment but have a limited effect on inflation. In a second step we disentangle shocks originating in the housing sector, shocks originating in credit markets and uncertainty shocks. In the extended set-upfinancial shocks are even more important and a leading role is played by housing shocks that have large and persistent effects on output.

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  • Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2014. "Identification of financial factors in economic fluctuations," KOF Working papers 14-364, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:14-364
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-010200285
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR; Sign restrictions; Nancial shocks; External nance premium; Housing; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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