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The determinants of a simultaneous crash in gold and stock markets: An ordered logit approach

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  • Takashi Miyazaki

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

  • Shigeyuki Hamori

    (Faculty of Economics, Kobe University)

Abstract

In this study, we identify the determinants of a simultaneous crash in gold and stock markets by employing an ordered logit model. We find that a default spread, among the various financial risk indicators, is a valid determinant and that changes in investors’ beliefs, their uncertainties, and surprise changes in these uncertainties about gold and stock markets contain useful information for explaining the occurrence of a simultaneous crash in the two markets. Further, we recognize that the effect of some covariates on crash probability is state-dependent. In addition to these empirical results, a notable finding is that the occurrence of a crash in one market on a previous day does not raise the probability of the occurrence of a crash in another market the next day, implying that a joint crash occurs abruptly and not in a chain reaction. This finding reveals that diversification to gold is still beneficial to investors.
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Suggested Citation

  • Takashi Miyazaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2016. "The determinants of a simultaneous crash in gold and stock markets: An ordered logit approach," Discussion Papers 1603, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:koe:wpaper:1603
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