IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jau/wpaper/2014-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dealing with an error correction model when trade balances are trend-stationary

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Cantavella-Jordá

    (Department of Economics and Instituto de Economía Internacional, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

Abstract

The present research shows how one can deal with stationary plus trend trade balance variables in a trade model where the rest of the variables contain a unit root. Data are used in a monthly and a quarterly basis from January 1980 to June 2011 and applied to four countries (Germany, France, Italy and United Kingdom). It is proved that an error correction mechanism suits better in terms of both econometrics and economics when detrending trade balances once they have been verified to have a deterministic trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2014. "Dealing with an error correction model when trade balances are trend-stationary," Working Papers 2014/04, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2014/04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.doctreballeco.uji.es/wpficheros/Cantavella_04_2014.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    3. Neil Karunaratne, 1997. "High-Tech Innovation, Growth and Trade Dynamics in Australia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 151-170, April.
    4. O.A. Fadeyi & A.A. Ogundeji & B.J. Willemse, 2014. "Establishing the linkages between the South African agricultural trade balance and macroeconomic indicators," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 92-105, November.
    5. Moschos, D. & Stournaras, Y., 1998. "Domestic and foreign price links in an aggregate supply framework: The case of Greece," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 141-157, June.
    6. Forgenie, David & Khoiriyah, Nikmatul, 2023. "Analyzing Food Import Demand in Indonesia: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 11(1), January.
    7. Yan Shen & Cheng Hsiao & Hiroshi Fujiki, 2005. "Aggregate vs. disaggregate data analysis-a paradox in the estimation of a money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 579-601.
    8. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "An aggregate import demand function for India: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 607-613.
    9. H. Bayram Irhan & Nur Dilbaz Alacahan & Levent Korap, 2011. "An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 14(1), pages 38-61, May.
    10. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Pourazarm, Elham & Cooray, Arusha, 2013. "Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 546-558.
    12. Hossain, Ferdaus, 1995. "Current account determination in the intertemporal framework: an empirical analysis," ISU General Staff Papers 1995010108000011939, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. M.T. Alguacil & V. Orts, "undated". "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward FDI: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 50, FEDEA.
    14. Phocenah Nyatanga, 2017. "Zimbabwe’s Trade Performance Under Alternative Trade Policy Regimes," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(2), pages 90-105, May.
    15. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    16. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    17. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "The rolling causal structure between the Chinese stock index and futures," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(4), pages 491-509, November.
    18. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:2:p:157-168 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Choi-Meng Leong & Chin-Hong Puah & Shazali Abu Mansor & Evan Lau, 2010. "Testing the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Malaysia Using Alternative Monetary Aggregation," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(3), pages 321-338, August.
    20. Webber, A., 1999. "Newton's Gravity Law and Import Prices in the Asia Pacific," Economics Working Papers WP99-12, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    21. Hauser, Shmuel & Kedar-Levy, Haim & Milo, Orit, 2022. "Price discovery during parallel stocks and options preopening: Information distortion and hints of manipulation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade model; difference stationary process; trend stationary process; error correction mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2014/04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: María Aurora Garcia Gallego (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ueujies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.