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Inflation Expectations and Corporate Borrowing Decisions: New Causal Evidence

Author

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  • Ropele, Tiziano

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Coibion, Olivier

    (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

We match survey data of Italian firms that includes a repeated experiment in which information about inflation is randomly provided to firms over time with detailed credit data that covers the borrowing decisions of firms. This allows us to study how exogenous variation in inflation expectations causally affects the borrowing decisions of Italian firms. We document a number of new results. Firms with exogenously higher inflation expectations end up paying higher interest rates on average but do not change the overall demand of loans. Instead, we find a significant rebalancing of firms' borrowing decisions away from lower-interest long-term loans and toward higher-interest short-term loans. In anticipation of rising future interest rates linked to higher expected inflation, firms also take on new long-term loans to pay down existing loans, thereby locking in interest rate savings. Firms that are relatively more knowledgeable about financial tools engage in the latter particularly strongly.

Suggested Citation

  • Ropele, Tiziano & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Coibion, Olivier, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Corporate Borrowing Decisions: New Causal Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 15614, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15614
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
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    5. Acharya, Viral & Almeida, Heitor & Ippolito, Filippo & Perez, Ander, 2014. "Credit lines as monitored liquidity insurance: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 287-319.
    6. Nathanael Vellekoop & Mirko Wiederholt, 2019. "Inflation Expectations and Choices of Households," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03878694, HAL.
    7. Concetta Rondinelli & Roberta Zizza, 2020. "Spend today or spend tomorrow? The role of inflation expectations in consumer behaviour," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1276, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Rüdiger Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs about the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Survey and a Field Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9427, CESifo.
    9. Rüdiger Weber & Annika Weber & Christine Laudenbach & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," CEBI working paper series 21-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    10. Christine Laudenbach & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 128, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; surveys; inattention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics

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