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Institutional Uncertainty and European Social Union: Impacts on Job Creation and Destruction in the CEECs

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  • Belke, Ansgar H.

    (University of Duisburg-Essen)

  • Göcke, Matthias
  • Hebler, Martin

    (Technologiezentrum Wuppertal)

Abstract

With the extension of its competence for social policy legislation in the Maastricht and Amsterdam treaties, the EU has adopted a significantly new social dimension in the past ten years. According to the Copenhagen criteria, the CEEC candidate countries have to adopt the former via the acquis communautaire. This paper discusses the effect of an adoption of this EU social law on future labor market performance in the CEECs. For this purpose, we model and investigate the impact of institutional uncertainty (and of its elimination) on job creation and job destruction in the CEEC candidate countries. We conclude that structural change on CEEC labor markets tends to be fostered via reducing institutional uncertainty. However, these kinds of benefits of the adoption of the acquis have to be weighed against the danger that the adoption of inefficient EU social and labor policy regulations imposed by the acquis might also entail significant risks for employment in the CEECs similar to those which have materialized in the former EU. This rather pessimistic view can be substantiated based on a public choice analysis of why the old EU members will want to impose the Social Charter even though it will harm the new members. These risks consist of a significant increase in hiring and firing costs and of higher wage rates. Based on a simple option value analysis, we investigate and evaluate the trade-off between lower institutional uncertainty and higher employment costs induced by the adoption of the acquis.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar H. & Göcke, Matthias & Hebler, Martin, 2004. "Institutional Uncertainty and European Social Union: Impacts on Job Creation and Destruction in the CEECs," IZA Discussion Papers 1039, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1039
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Dominik Kronen, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on macro variables - An SVAR-based empirical analysis for EU countries," ROME Working Papers 201708, ROME Network.
    2. Rainer Schweickert & Inna Melnykovska & Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon, 2011. "Prospective NATO or EU membership and institutional change in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(4), pages 667-692, October.
    3. Henry Aray, 2015. "Hysteresis and import penetration with decreasing sunk entry costs," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 175-188, June.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Dominik Kronen, 2016. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in Greek exports to the Euro Area, the US and Turkey: sectoral evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 349-390, May.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy shocks in OECD countries: how important is the extent of policy uncertainty?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 683-703, July.
    6. Saam, Nicole J. & Sumpter, David, 2008. "EU institutional reforms: How do member states reach a decision," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 71-86.
    7. Esther Ademmer & Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schweickert, 2014. "Large-scale Transformations of Socio-economic Institutions," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 50892, March.
    8. Belke, Ansgar & Gocke, Matthias & Hebler, Martin, 2005. "Institutional uncertainty and European Social Union: Impacts on job creation and destruction in the CEECs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 345-354, April.
    9. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Giombini, Germana & Saltari, Enrico, 2009. "Financial and labor market imperfections and investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 22-26, January.
    10. Sánchez-Martín, Miguel Eduardo & de Arce, Rafael & Escribano, Gonzalo, 2014. "Do changes in the rules of the game affect FDI flows in Latin America? A look at the macroeconomic, institutional and regional integration determinants of FDI," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 279-299.
    11. Belke, Ansgar & Kronen, Dominik, 2017. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy: The role of uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 695, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Kronen Dominik & Belke Ansgar, 2017. "The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro Variables – An SVAR-Based Empirical Analysis for EU Countries," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(2), pages 93-116, August.
    13. Paulo Mota & José Varejão & Paulo Vasconcelos, 2015. "A hysteresis model-based indicator for employment adjustment rigidity," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 547-569, August.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2009. "Prospective NATO or EU Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0131, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Belke, Ansgar & Bordon, Ingo G. & Melnykovska, Inna & Schweickert, Rainer, 2009. "Prospective membership and institutional change in transition countries," Kiel Working Papers 1562, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. repec:zbw:rwirep:0131 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    institutional uncertainty; EU enlargement; real option approach; social union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights

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