IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/remwps/wp01192020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exposure of Belt and Road Economies to China Trade Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Paulo Bastos

Abstract

This paper uses international trade data to assess the degree of exposure of Belt and Roadeconomies to China trade shocks. It finds that the growth of China’s trade following its internal transformation and accession to the WTO significantly impacted the export performance ofBelt and Road economies in the period 2000-2015. The increase in China’s imports significantlyboosted the exports of these economies. However, this effect was attenuated by increased compe-tition from China in export markets. The effects of China’s demand shocks were stronger in more upstream industries, while those of competition shocks were stronger in industries that producegoods that are closer to final use. The effects of competition shocks were also relatively stronger in countries that are relatively poorer and geographically closer to China. Building on these find-ings, the paper documents the current degree of exposure of Belt and Road economies to Chinatrade shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Bastos, 2020. "Exposure of Belt and Road Economies to China Trade Shocks," Working Papers REM 2020/0119, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01192020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/pdf/REM_WP_0119_2020.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melitz, Jacques & Toubal, Farid, 2014. "Native language, spoken language, translation and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 351-363.
    2. Costa, Francisco & Garred, Jason & Pessoa, João Paulo, 2016. "Winners and losers from a commodities-for-manufactures trade boom," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 50-69.
    3. Pol Antras & Davin Chor & Thibault Fally & Russell Hillberry, 2012. "Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 412-416, May.
    4. de Soyres, François & Mulabdic, Alen & Murray, Siobhan & Rocha, Nadia & Ruta, Michele, 2019. "How much will the Belt and Road Initiative reduce trade costs?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 151-164.
    5. Lee Branstetter, 2006. "China's Embrace of Globalisation," Working Papers id:640, eSocialSciences.
    6. Robert C. Feenstra & Akira Sasahara, 2018. "The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 1053-1083, November.
    7. Hiau Looi Kee & Heiwai Tang, 2016. "Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1402-1436, June.
    8. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2015. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 621-646, May.
    9. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    10. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    11. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    12. Finger, J M & Kreinin, M E, 1979. "A Measure of 'Export Similarity' and Its Possible Uses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 905-912, December.
    13. Yuyu Chen & Ginger Zhe Jin & Yang Yue, 2024. "Peer Migration in China," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(2), pages 257-313, April.
    14. Barry Naughton, 2007. "The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262640643, April.
    15. Feenstra, Robert C. & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2019. "US exports and employment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 46-58.
    16. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2017. "Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2908-2946, October.
    17. Ahn, JaeBin & Duval, Romain, 2017. "Trading with China: Productivity gains, job losses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 38-42.
    18. Johnson, Robert C., 2012. "Trade and prices with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 43-56.
    19. Robert Koopman & William Powers & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains," NBER Working Papers 16426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weiming Li & Zhaoyang Cai & Shixiong Cao, 2021. "What has caused regional income inequality in China? Effects of 10 socioeconomic factors on per capita income," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13403-13417, September.
    2. Liu, Zhigao & Schindler, Seth & Liu, Weidong, 2020. "Demystifying Chinese overseas investment in infrastructure: Port development, the Belt and Road Initiative and regional development," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Zhi Luo & Guanghua Wan & Chen Wang & Xun Zhang, 2022. "The distributive impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 586-604, July.
    4. Nugent, Jeffrey B. & Lu, Jiaxuan, 2021. "China's outward foreign direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative: What are the motives for Chinese firms to invest?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Jianhong Qi & Kam Ki Tang & Da Yin & Yong Zhao, 2020. "Remaking China’s Global Image with the Belt and Road Initiative: Is the Jury Out?," Discussion Papers Series 635, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    6. DeStefano, Timothy & Timmis, Jonathan, 2024. "Robots and export quality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Fredrik Sjöholm, 2023. "The Belt and Road Initiative: Economic Causes and Effects," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 22(1), pages 62-81, Winter/Sp.
    8. Jiemiao Dong & Zhuangxiong Yu & Xunpeng Shi & Yang Yang, 2024. "Industrial Policy, Product Switching, and Export Performance," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 32(1), pages 167-196, January.
    9. Sha Fan, 2023. "Does the Belt and Road Initiative Promote Bilateral Trade? An Empirical Analysis of China and the Belt and Road Countries," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(2), pages 190-214, May.
    10. He, Qing & Liu, Junyi & Yu, Jishuang, 2023. "Dancing with dragon: The RMB and developing economies’ currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Jing Fang & Jinghua Ou & Shujie Yao, 2022. "On COVID‐19 pandemic and China’s foreign trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3507-3533, November.
    12. Zhang, Yun & Liu, Yun & Zhang, Yifei & Chen, Xin, 2022. "Globalization blueprint and households’ fintech debt: Evidence from China’s One Belt One Road initiative," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 38-55.
    13. Tian Zhao, 2023. "Crowding-Out or Spillover: Reassessment on the Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Innovation Efficiency," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, March.
    14. Koffi Dumor & Li Yao & Jean-Paul Ainam & Edem Koffi Amouzou & Williams Ayivi, 2021. "Quantitative Dynamics Effects of Belt and Road Economies Trade Using Structural Gravity and Neural Networks," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sónia Cabral & Pedro S. Martins & João Pereira dos Santos & Mariana Tavares, 2021. "Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 570-600, April.
    2. Yang Liang, 2021. "Job creation and job destruction: The effect of trade shocks on U.S. manufacturing employment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2909-2949, October.
    3. Andrés César & Guillermo Falcone, 2020. "Heterogeneous Effects of Chinese Import Competition on Chilean Manufacturing Plants," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-60, December.
    4. César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2021. "Costs and benefits of trade shocks: Evidence from Chilean local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Katrin Huber & Erwin Winkler, 2016. "All We Need is Love? Trade-Adjustment, Inequality, and the Role of the Partner," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 873, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    6. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.
    7. Nilsson Hakkala, Katariina & Huttunen, Kristiina, 2016. "Worker-level consequences of import shocks," Working Papers 74, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Gray, Rowena & Wright, Greg C., 2024. "A rising tide? The local incidence of the second wave of globalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Inferrera, Sergio, 2021. "Globalisation in Europe: Consequences for the business environment and future patterns in light of Covid-19," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 2/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Jaerim Choi & Mingzhi Xu, 2020. "The labor market effects of the China Syndrome: Evidence from South Korean manufacturing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 3039-3087, November.
    11. Nilsson Hakkala, Katariina & Huttunen, Kristiina, 2016. "Worker-Level Consequences of Import Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 10033, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Pavel Chakraborty & Rahul Singh & Vidhya Soundararajan, 2021. "Import Competition, Formalization, and the Role of Contract Labor," Working Papers 332157179, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    13. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    14. Facchini, Giovanni & Liu, Maggie Y. & Mayda, Anna Maria & Zhou, Minghai, 2019. "China's “Great Migration”: The impact of the reduction in trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 126-144.
    15. Patrick Arni & Pether H. Egger & Katharina Erhardt & Matthias Gubler & Philip Sauré, 2024. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Trade Shocks on Workers," Working Papers 2409, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    16. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    17. Shen, Leilei & Silva, Peri, 2018. "Value-added exports and U.S. local labor markets: Does China really matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 479-504.
    18. Blanchard, Emily J. & Bown, Chad P. & Chor, Davin, 2024. "Did Trump’s trade war impact the 2018 election?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2019. "Margins of labor market adjustment to trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 125-142.
    20. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2017. "Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2908-2946, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Belt and Road Initiative; China; Trade shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01192020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sandra Araújo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.