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The Seismography of Crashes in Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Tanya Araujo
  • Francisco Louçã

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 for the last 33 years, considering the population of all companies present in the index for the whole period. Using a stochastic geometry tech- nique and defining a robust index of the dynamics of the market struc- ture, which is able to provide information about the intensity of the crises, the paper proposes a seismographic classification of the crashes that occurred during the period. The index is used in order to inves- tigate and to classify the impact of the twelve crashes between July 1973 and March 2006 and to discuss the available evidence of change of structure after the fin de sicle.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louçã, 2007. "The Seismography of Crashes in Financial Markets," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/05, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp52007
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    File URL: https://depeco.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wp/wp052007.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Gopikrishnan, P & Plerou, V, 2000. "Scale invariance and universality of economic fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 31-41.
    2. Stanley, H.Eugene, 2003. "Statistical physics and economic fluctuations: do outliers exist?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 279-292.
    3. Stanley, H.Eugene & Nunes Amaral, Luis A. & Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki, 2001. "Quantifying economic fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 302(1), pages 126-137.
    4. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Gopikrishnan, P & Ivanov, P.Ch & Keitt, T.H & Plerou, V, 2000. "Scale invariance and universality: organizing principles in complex systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 281(1), pages 60-68.
    5. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louca, 2007. "The geometry of crashes. A measure of the dynamics of stock market crises," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 63-74.
    6. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tanya Araújo & Francisco Louçã, 2008. "Bargaining Clouds, or Mathematics as a Metaphoric Exploration of the Unexpected," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/27, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Tanya Araujo & João Dias & Samuel Eleutério & Francisco Louçã, 2012. "How Fama Went Wrong: Measures of Multivariate Kurtosis for the Identification of the Dynamics of a N-Dimensional Market," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/21, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Araújo, Tanya & Spelta, Alessandro, 2014. "Structural changes in cross-border liabilities: A multidimensional approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 277-287.
    4. Tanya Ara'ujo & Jo~ao Dias & Samuel Eleut'erio & Francisco Louc{c}~a, 2012. "How Fama Went Wrong: Measures of Multivariate Kurtosis for the Identification of the Dynamics of a N-Dimensional Market," Papers 1207.1202, arXiv.org.
    5. Alessandro Spelta & Tanya Ara'ujo, 2011. "The topology of cross-border exposures: beyond the minimal spanning tree approach," Papers 1112.5711, arXiv.org.
    6. Alessandro Spelta & Tanya Araujo, 2012. "Interlinkages and structural changes in cross-border liabilities: a network approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/19, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Spelta, Alessandro & Araújo, Tanya, 2012. "The topology of cross-border exposures: Beyond the minimal spanning tree approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5572-5583.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keywords: financial markets; stochastic geometry; complexity; market spaces; market structures.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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