IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/inu/caeprp/2023004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Trajectories-Based Approach to Measuring Intergenerational Mobility

Author

Listed:
  • Yoosoon Chang

    (Indiana University, Department of Economics)

  • Steven Durlauf

    (University of Chicago and National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Seunghee Lee

    (Korea Development Institute (KDI))

  • Joon Park

    (Indiana University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper develops an approach to intergenerational mobility in which the trajectories of parental incomes during childhood and adolescence are the conditioning objects for characterizing dependence across generations. We use functional regression methods to produce an intergenerational elasticity curve that measures how marginal changes in income at each age affect expected offspring permanent income. Using the PSID, estimates of this curve exhibit near monotonicity with respect to age, so that parental incomes in middle childhood and adolescence have larger marginal effects than incomes in early childhood. When interactions are allowed to occur between incomes at different ages, we find a complex pattern of substitutability between incomes at ages that are close in time versus complementarity between parental incomes for ages early childhood and adolescence. Qualitatively similar results hold for offspring education while we do not find evidence of age-specific effects for occupation. We conclude that important information about the links between parental incomes and children exists beyond the scalar characterization of parental permanent income.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoosoon Chang & Steven Durlauf & Seunghee Lee & Joon Park, 2023. "A Trajectories-Based Approach to Measuring Intergenerational Mobility," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-004 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
  • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2023004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://caepr.indiana.edu/RePEc/inu/caeprp/caepr2023-004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    2. Lance Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2012. "Credit Constraints in Education," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 225-256, July.
    3. Bhashkar Mazumder, 2005. "Fortunate Sons: New Estimates of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States Using Social Security Earnings Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 235-255, May.
    4. Miles Corak, 2013. "Income Inequality, Equality of Opportunity, and Intergenerational Mobility," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 79-102, Summer.
    5. Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Lance Lochner, 2020. "Early and Late Human Capital Investments, Borrowing Constraints, and the Family," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1065-1147.
    6. Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan & Steven N. Durlauf, 2022. "The Great Gatsby Curve," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 571-605, August.
    7. James J. Heckman & Stefano Mosso, 2014. "The Economics of Human Development and Social Mobility," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 689-733, August.
    8. Miles Corak, 2006. "Do Poor Children Become Poor Adults? Lessons from a Cross-Country Comparison of Generational Earnings Mobility," Research on Economic Inequality, in: Dynamics of Inequality and Poverty, pages 143-188, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Susanne M. Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 883-931, May.
    10. Steven Haider & Gary Solon, 2006. "Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1308-1320, September.
    11. Richard Blundell & Ian Preston, 1998. "Consumption Inequality and Income Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(2), pages 603-640.
    12. Jason Long & Joseph Ferrie, 2013. "Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Great Britain and the United States since 1850: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 2041-2049, August.
    13. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Patrick Kline & Emmanuel Saez, 2014. "Where is the land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1553-1623.
    14. Nathan D. Grawe, 2004. "Reconsidering the Use of Nonlinearities in Intergenerational Earnings Mobility as a Test for Credit Constraints," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(3).
    15. Bhashkar Mazumder & Miguel Acosta, 2015. "Using Occupation to Measure Intergenerational Mobility," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 657(1), pages 174-193, January.
    16. Jonathan Davis & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2017. "The Decline in Intergenerational Mobility After 1980," Working Paper Series WP-2017-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 14 Jan 2022.
    17. Jared Ashworth & V. Joseph Hotz & Arnaud Maurel & Tyler Ransom, 2021. "Changes across Cohorts in Wage Returns to Schooling and Early Work Experiences," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 931-964.
    18. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 2001. "The Dynamics of Educational Attainment for Black, Hispanic, and White Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 455-499, June.
    19. Park, Joon Y. & Qian, Junhui, 2012. "Functional regression of continuous state distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 397-412.
    20. Jason Long & Joseph Ferrie, 2013. "Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Great Britain and the United States since 1850," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1109-1137, June.
    21. Pedro Carneiro & Italo López García & Kjell G. Salvanes & Emma Tominey, 2021. "Intergenerational Mobility and the Timing of Parental Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(3), pages 757-788.
    22. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman, 2008. "Formulating, Identifying and Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(4).
    23. Fang Yao & Hans-Georg Müller, 2010. "Functional quadratic regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 97(1), pages 49-64.
    24. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
    25. Lars Lefgren & Matthew J. Lindquist & David Sims, 2012. "Rich Dad, Smart Dad: Decomposing the Intergenerational Transmission of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 268-303.
    26. Solon, Gary, 1992. "Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 393-408, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yoosoon Chang & Fabio Gomez-Rodriguez & Christian Matthes, 2023. "The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-008 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    2. Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption," Working Papers No 01/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    3. Yoosoon Chang & Yong-gun Kim & Boreum Kwak & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Using Density Forecast for Growth-at-Risk to Improve Mean Forecast of GDP Growth in Korea," CAEPR Working Papers 2024-005 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. French, Eric Baird & O’Dea, Cormac & MacCuish, Jamie, 2021. "The Intergenerational Elasticity of Earnings: Exploring the Mechanisms," CEPR Discussion Papers 15975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Rasmus Landersø & James J. Heckman, 2017. "The Scandinavian Fantasy: Sources of Intergenerational Mobility in Denmark and the US," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(1), pages 178-230, January.
    3. French, Eric Baird & O’Dea, Cormac & MacCuish, Jamie, 2021. "The Intergenerational Elasticity of Earnings: Exploring the Mechanisms," CEPR Discussion Papers 15975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Gallipoli, Giovanni & Low, Hamish & Mitra, Aruni, 2020. "Consumption and Income Inequality across Generations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Michele Bavaro & Federico Tullio, 2023. "Intergenerational mobility measurement with latent transition matrices," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 21(1), pages 25-45, March.
    6. Markus Jäntti & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2013. "Income Mobility," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 607, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    7. Daniel D. Schnitzlein, 2016. "A New Look at Intergenerational Mobility in Germany Compared to the U.S," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(4), pages 650-667, December.
    8. Jonathan Davis & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2017. "The Decline in Intergenerational Mobility After 1980," Working Paper Series WP-2017-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 14 Jan 2022.
    9. Chu, Luke Yu-Wei & Lin, Ming-Jen, 2016. "Economic development and intergenerational earnings mobility: Evidence from Taiwan," Working Paper Series 19495, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Francesconi, Marco & Heckman, James J, 2015. "Symposium on Child Development and Parental Investment: Introduction," Economics Discussion Papers 16868, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    11. Yoko Niimi, 2018. "Do borrowing constraints matter for intergenerational educational mobility? Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 628-656, October.
    12. Uta Bolt & Eric French & Jamie Hentall Maccuish & Cormac O’Dea, 2018. "Intergenerational Altruism and Transfers of Time and Money: A Life-cycle Perspective," Working Papers wp379, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    13. Guo, Ningning, 2022. "Hollowing out of opportunity: Automation technology and intergenerational mobility in the United States," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Rauh, Christopher, 2017. "Voting, education, and the Great Gatsby Curve," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Zachary Ward, 2023. "Intergenerational Mobility in American History: Accounting for Race and Measurement Error," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3213-3248, December.
    16. Barbara Castillo Rico, 2020. "Trends in intergenerational homeownership mobility in France between 1960-2015," AMSE Working Papers 2008, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    17. Michelle M. Miller & Frank McIntyre, 2020. "Does Money Matter for Intergenerational Income Transmission?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(3), pages 941-970, January.
    18. Lijie Song, 2022. "Examining the Relationship Between Intergenerational Upward Mobility and Inequality: Evidence from Panel Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 1-27, August.
    19. Yu-Wei Luke Chu & Ming-Jen Lin, 2020. "Intergenerational earnings mobility in Taiwan: 1990–2010," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 11-45, July.
    20. Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Dahmann, Sarah C. & Salamanca, Nicolás & Zhu, Anna, 2022. "Intergenerational disadvantage: Learning about equal opportunity from social assistance receipt," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2023004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caeprus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.