Science Fiction and Economic Cycles. A Dialogue on Technological Expectations

Was the 2007-8 financial and economic crisis brought about by the exhaustion of the current techno-economic paradigm, and will a new paradigm will lead to eventual recovery? Lundvall and Steinmueller respond to Archibugi’s Blade Runner economics. Lundvall argues that whilst it is useful to think in terms of techno-economic paradigms to understand the uneven process of technological and social advancement, the main reason for the crisis and the main requirement for a new upswing are both socio-political rather than technological in nature. There is a link between the neoliberal deregulation regime that led to the crisis and ICTs. This regime might actually slow down the formation of a new techno-economic paradigm based around genetic engineering, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology. Steinmueller discusses what role science fiction might play in developing insights about possible futures. Might the present day equivalent for techno-economic paradigm change be more about the innovations necessary to rebuild or retrofit our existing technologies than about producing new growth sectors? Taking on board these insights, Archibugi contends that we need to understand why the economic crisis has been so long, so deep and so wide. An innovation-based recovery will need to take advantage of technological opportunities. Pro-active public intervention in science and technology will additionally be required, combined with new social imagination.