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A Quantitative Microfounded Model for the Integrated Policy Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Tobias Adrian
  • Christopher J. Erceg
  • Marcin Kolasa
  • Jesper Lindé
  • Pawel Zabczyk

Abstract

We develop a microfounded New Keynesian model to analyze monetary policy and financial stability issues in open economies with financial fragilities and weakly anchored inflation expectations. We show that foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs) can improve monetary policy tradeoffs under some conditions, including by reducing the need for procyclical tightening in response to capital outflow pressures. Moreover, they can be used in a preemptive way to reduce the risk of a “sudden stop” through curbing a buildup in leverage. While these tools can materially improve welfare, mainly by dampening inefficient fluctuations in risk premia, our analysis also highlights potential limitations, including the possibility that their deployment may forestall needed adjustment in the external balance. Finally, our results also emphasize the power of FXIs to provide domestic stimulus in a liquidity trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tobias Adrian & Christopher J. Erceg & Marcin Kolasa & Jesper Lindé & Pawel Zabczyk, 2021. "A Quantitative Microfounded Model for the Integrated Policy Framework," IMF Working Papers 2021/292, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/292
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Moro, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2023. "The green sin: How exchange rate volatility and financial openness affect green premia," CFS Working Paper Series 715, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Flavio Abanto Salcedo, 2024. "Is Foreign Exchange Intervention through derivative instruments effective? An analysis of the Peruvian case," IHEID Working Papers 17-2024, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Moro, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2024. "The external financial spillovers of CBDCs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Alessandro Moro & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2024. "Carbon taxes around the world: cooperation, strategic interactions, and spillovers," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1445, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Kolasa, Marcin & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2023. "Quantitative easing in the US and financial cycles in emerging markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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