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Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Post-crisis Assessment

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  • Ms. Evridiki Tsounta

Abstract

Canadian house prices have increased significantly between 2003 and early 2008, with a marked downward trend since mid-2008, especially in the resource-rich western provinces. This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices during this period in key provinces and finds that, following recent declines, home prices are now generally close to equilibrium throughout Canada. However, house prices in Alberta and British Columbia remain around 8 percent overvalued at the end of the sample (second quarter of 2009). Despite the limitations of econometric estimates of house-price dynamics, the measured small degree of overvaluation suggests that the Canadian housing market is essentially at equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2009. "Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Post-crisis Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2009/235, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kronick, Jeremy, 2015. "Do Loan-to-Value Ratio Regulation Changes Affect Canadian Mortgage Credit?," MPRA Paper 73671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Diego Vílchez, 2015. "Assessing the House Price Dynamics in Lima," IHEID Working Papers 09-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?," IMF Working Papers 2012/193, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Alan Walks, 2014. "Canada's Housing Bubble Story: Mortgage Securitization, the State, and the Global Financial Crisis," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 256-284, January.
    6. Vílchez, Diego, 2015. "Evaluando las Dinámicas de Precios en el Sector Inmobiliario: Evidencia para Perú," Working Papers 2015-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Carmen Silva & Camilo Vio, 2015. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors: evidence from Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(1), pages 4-24, April.
    8. Ch. Warisse, 2017. "Analysis of the developments in residential property prices : Is the Belgian market overvalued ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 61-77, June.

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