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Coping with Spain’s Aging: Retirement Rules and Incentives

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  • Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister
  • Mr. Mario Catalan
  • Mr. Jaime Guajardo

Abstract

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of extending the averaging period used to calculate pension benefits in a pay-as-you-go system. It also examines the complementarities between reforms extending the averaging period and those increasing the retirement age under alternative tax policies. The analysis is based on a model in the Auerbach-Kotlikoff tradition applied to the Spanish economy. Without reforms, the simulations suggest that aging-related spending as a share of output will increase 16 percentage points by 2050, which are twice as much as in European Commission (2006) projections due to general equilibrium effects. Also, reforms extending the averaging period to the entire work life limit expenditure pressures at the peak of the demographic shock as much as increasing the retirement age in line with life expectancy (4 percentage points of GDP). These reforms and prefunding the demographic shock mitigate the adverse macroeconomic effects of aging and improve welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister & Mr. Mario Catalan & Mr. Jaime Guajardo, 2007. "Coping with Spain’s Aging: Retirement Rules and Incentives," IMF Working Papers 2007/122, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/122
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Babecky & Kamil Dybczak, 2009. "The Impact of Population Ageing on the Czech Economy," Working Papers 2009/1, Czech National Bank.
    2. Hans FEHR, 2010. "Pension Reform with Variable Retirment Age," EcoMod2010 259600055, EcoMod.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Härtl, Klaus & Leite, Duarte & Ludwig, Alexander, 2018. "Endogenous retirement behavior of heterogeneous households under pension reforms," SAFE Working Paper Series 221, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Mario Catalán & Nicolas E. Magud, 2017. "A Tradeoff between the Output and Net Foreign Asset Effects of Pension Reform," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 685-709, September.
    5. Andras Simonovits, 2012. "Pension Reforms in an Aging Society: A Fully Displayed Cohort Model," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 4, pages 1-30, December.
    6. Mr. Mario Catalan & Mr. Nicolas E Magud, 2012. "A Tradeoff between the Output and Current Account Effects of Pension Reform," IMF Working Papers 2012/283, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

    WP; labor force; retirement age;
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