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Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them

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  • Mick Silver

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and the criteria for choosing among them. The approaches to measurement considered include exclusion-based methods, imputation methods, limited influence estimators, reweighting, and economic modeling. Criteria for judging which approach to use include credibility, control, deviations from a smoothed reference series, volatility, predictive ability, causality and cointegration tests, and correlation with money supply. Country practice can differ in how the approaches are implemented and how their appropriateness is assessed. There is little consistency in the results of country studies to readily suggest guidelines on accepted methods.

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  • Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them," IMF Working Papers 2006/097, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/097
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    1. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/239, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Sanjay Kalra & Bui Thi Trang Dzung, 2016. "Robust Measures of Core Inflation for Vietnam," IMF Working Papers 2016/019, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Adrian Armas & Lucy Vallejos & Marco Vega, 2010. "Measurement of price indices used by the central bank of Peru," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 259-283, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Brieuc Monfort & Santiago Peña, 2008. "Inflation Determinants in Paraguay: Cost Push versus Demand Pull Factors," IMF Working Papers 2008/270, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Felipe Córdova & María Carolina Grünwald & Michael Pedersen, 2008. "Alternative Measures of Core Inflation in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 471, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Novikova Natalia & Volkov Dmitry, 2012. "Modelling core inflation in Ukraine in 2003-2012," EERC Working Paper Series 12/12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    8. Joice John & Abhiman Das & Sanjay Singh, 2016. "An Application of Quah and Vahey’s SVAR Methodology for Estimating Core Inflation in India: A Note," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 151-158, June.

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