IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ihs/ihstep/17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Towards the EMU: A Need For Exchange Rate Flexibility?

Author

Listed:
  • Cincibuch, Martin

    (Czech National Bank)

  • Vávra, David

    (CERGE-EI)

Abstract

We address the question of exchange rate regime for the Czech Republic before it enters the EU and the EMU. We classify macroeconomic impacts of a single currency regime according to the traditional OCA theory. Using quantitative measures, we find the degree of macroeconomic convergence between the Czech and German (EU) economies high enough not to form a major obstacle to a common currency regime. In addition, we look at transitional specificities of the Czech economy. We analyse the real appreciation of the Czech currency and its relationship to competitiveness and find that development of cost factors exercise depreciationary pressures on the exchange rate. Conversely, a fixed regime may alleviate problems of the foreign capital influx and ensuing nominal appreciation - another idiosyncrasy of the Czech economy. However, once labour market rigidities are removed, a fixed regime may become a source of a sustainable competitive advantage, growth, and convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Cincibuch, Martin & Vávra, David, 2000. "Towards the EMU: A Need For Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Transition Economics Series 17, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihstep:17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/1268
    File Function: First version, 2000
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bob Beachill & Geoff Pugh, 1998. "Monetary Cooperation in Europe and the Problem of Differential Productivity Growth: an argument for a 'two-speed' Europe," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 445-457.
    2. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, September.
    3. Andrew Weiss & Georgiy Nikitin, 1998. "Performance of Czech Companies by Ownership Structure," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 186, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
    5. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Monetary union and convergence economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1091-1101, April.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-1357, September.
    7. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alexoaei Alina Petronela & Robu Raluca Georgiana, 2018. "A theoretical review on the structural convergence issue and the relation to economic development in integration areas," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 34-44, May.
    4. Martin Cincibuch & Jiří Podpiera, 2006. "Beyond Balassa–Samuelson: Real appreciation in tradables in transition countries1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(3), pages 547-573, July.
    5. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Vit Barta, 2005. "Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options," Research and Policy Notes 2005/04, Czech National Bank.
    7. Weimann, Marco, 2002. "OCA theory and EMU eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/02, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    8. Martin Cincibuch & Jiri Podpiera, 2004. "Beyond Balassa - Samuelson: Real Appreciation in Tradables in Transition Countries," Working Papers 2004/09, Czech National Bank.
    9. García-Solanes, José & Sancho-Portero, F. Israel & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2008. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson effect in some new member states of the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 17-32, March.
    10. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Cincibuch, David Vávra, 2001. "Toward the European Monetary Union - A Need for Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 23-63, November.
    2. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-078, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Filippo Balestrieri & Mr. Suman S Basu, 2018. "An Imperfect Financial Union With Heterogeneous Regions," IMF Working Papers 2018/205, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Laopodis, N. T., 1998. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers in deutsche mark exchange rates," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 413-430, November.
    6. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    7. Balázs Égert, 2005. "Balassa-Samuelson Meets South Eastern Europe, the CIS and Turkey: A Close Encounter of the Third Kind?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 221-243, December.
    8. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Martin Cincibuch & Jiří Podpiera, 2006. "Beyond Balassa–Samuelson: Real appreciation in tradables in transition countries1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(3), pages 547-573, July.
    10. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    11. Taylor Mark P. & Sarno Lucio, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies: A Nonlinear Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-26, October.
    12. Roger Perman & Christophe Tavera, 2007. "Testing for convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 45-61, March.
    13. Florence Huart & Médédé Tchakpalla, 2019. "Labor Market Conditions and Geographic Mobility in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(2), pages 263-284, June.
    14. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 1, pages 1-9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea, 2010. "It Can't Happen, It's a Bad Idea, It Won't Last: U.S. Economists on the EMU and the Euro, 1989–2002," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 1-4–52, January.
    16. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 1999. "EMU in Reality: The Effect of a Common Monetary Policy on Economies with Different Transmission Mechanisms," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 337-358, December.
    18. Davide Furceri, 2002. "Risk-sharing e architettura istituzionale delle politiche di stabilizzazione nell'UME: aspetti metodologici e verifica empirica," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(6), pages 175-210, November-.
    19. Eichengreen, Barry, 2002. "Lessons of the Euro for the Rest of the World," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt16g425jb, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    20. Kenneth M. Kletzer, "undated". "Macroeconomic Stabilization with a Common Currency:," EPRU Working Paper Series 97-22, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Czech Republic; Eurisation; Optimum currency areas; Real exchange rate; Competitiveness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices
    • P29 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ihs:ihstep:17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Doris Szoncsitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deihsat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.