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Does Macroeconomics Help Understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates?

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  • Carlo A. Favero

Abstract

The expectations model of the term structure states that the yields to maturity of long term bonds are equal to the average of expected future short-term bond yields.This venerable model has been subjected to numerous empirical tests and almost invariably rejected. The empirical failure is generally attributed either to systematic expectations errors, or to shifts in the risk premia. In fact, the empirical tests, based on the estimation of single-equation models, are not able to discriminate between these two hypotheses. A recent strand of the macroeconomic literature has analyzed monetary policy by including the central bank reaction function in small empirical macro models. By simulating these models forward it is possible to derive the full forward path of short-term interest rates and hence to construct any long-term interest rate consistent with the expectations model. A\ direct test of the theory, based on full-information, can then be immediately constructed by comparing observed long-term rates with the simulated ones and the associated 95 per cent confidence interval. This is what we do in this paper. Our results shed new light on the empirical validity of the expectations model.

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  • Carlo A. Favero, "undated". "Does Macroeconomics Help Understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates?," Working Papers 195, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
    2. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
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    1. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Lessons from the ECB Experience: Frankfurt Still Matters!," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(2), pages 147-170, July.
    2. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2003. "The reputation of a newborn central bank," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(224), pages 3-22.
    3. Viktor Kotlan, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2002/01, Czech National Bank.
    4. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    5. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M.F. Martins, 2005. "The Preferences of the Euro Area Monetary Policy‐maker," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 221-250, June.
    9. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The effects of a greater central bank credibility on interest rates level and volatility response to news in the U.K," MPRA Paper 5263, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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