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Using a temporary indirect tax cut as a fiscal stimulus: evidence from the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Crossley

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Essex and European University Institute)

  • Hamish Low

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Oxford & Nuffield College)

  • Cath Sleeman

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Nesta)

Abstract

This paper evaluates a novel form of fiscal stimulus: a temporary cut in the rate of Value Added Tax (VAT). In December 2008, the UK cut the standard rate of VAT by 2.5 percentage points for 13 months in an effort to stimulate spending. We estimate the effect of the cut on prices and spending using alternative strategies for identifying the counter-factual. Although firms initially passed through the VAT cut by lowering their prices, at least part of the pass through of the VAT cut was reversed after only a few months. Despite this early reversal, the cut raised the volume of retail sales by around 1% which on its own generates a 0.4% increase in total expenditure. The cut raised retail sales by encouraging consumers to bring forward their purchases and we find a significant fall in sales after the VAT cut ended. Thus an indirect tax cut stimulates significant intertermporal substitution in purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Crossley & Hamish Low & Cath Sleeman, 2014. "Using a temporary indirect tax cut as a fiscal stimulus: evidence from the UK," IFS Working Papers W14/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:14/16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bańkowski, Krzysztof, 2023. "Fiscal policy in the semi-structural model ECB-BASE," Working Paper Series 2802, European Central Bank.
    2. Désirée I. Christofzik & Angela Fuest & Robin Jessen, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of the Anticipation and Implementation of Tax Changes in Germany: Evidence from a Narrative Account," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 62-81, January.
    3. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "After the Great Economic Collapse: Germany’s Stimulus Package to Recover the Economy in Times of Covid-19," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(02), pages 38-46, July.
    4. Gómez-Antonio, Miguel & del Moral Arce, Ignacio & Hortas-Rico, Miriam, 2022. "Are VAT reforms an effective tool for promoting culture? A quasi-experiment in Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1016-1040.
    5. Funke, Michael & Terasa, Raphael, 2022. "Has Germany’s temporary VAT rates cut as part of the COVID-19 fiscal stimulus boosted growth?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 450-473.
    6. Rittenhouse, Katherine & Zaragoza-Watkins, Matthew, 2018. "Anticipation and environmental regulation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 255-277.
    7. Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier & Andreas Peichl, 2021. "Hat die Mehrwertsteuersenkung den Konsum belebt?," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(1), January.
    8. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Van Droogenbroeck, Ellen, 2024. "Temporary VAT rate cuts and food prices in e-commerce," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kocharakov, Georgi & Luetticke, Ralph & Weber, Michael, 2021. "A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 16690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "Nach dem großen Einbruch: Ein Konjunkturprogramm zur Stützung und Erholung der Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(07), pages 03-12, July.
    11. Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier & Daniel Stöhlker, 2020. "Die Preiseffekte der Mehrwertsteuersenkung in deutschen Supermärkten: Eine Analyse für mehr als 60 000 Produkte," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(13), November.

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