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A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses : applying a trend-cycle decomposition to unemployment

Author

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  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; University of Regensburg)

Abstract

"Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a (stochastic) trend and a cyclical part and to estimate the influence of these components on labor participation. The persistent trend component of unemployment, which triggers permanent reactions of the workers, is likely connected to a structural discouragement effect. The cyclical component, which reflects more fluctuant changes, can be linked to a shorter-term added worker effect. By splitting up the participation effect of changes in the unemployment rate our analysis differs profoundly from previous studies that present the net of both or only a single effect. For the total working population both a discouragement and an added worker effect were identified. In detailed analyses we find that the former was relevant for older workers, whereas the latter especially concerns prime aged and younger females. As many OECD countries are facing an ageing population as well as rising importance of women in the labor market, these age- and gender-specific results might be of particular interest." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses : applying a trend-cycle decomposition to unemployment," IAB-Discussion Paper 201301, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201301
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    Cited by:

    1. Provenzano Sandro, 2017. "The Empirics of Hidden Labor Force Dynamics in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(5), pages 373-406, October.
    2. Deniz Karaoglan & Cagla Okten, 2022. "The effect of parental job loss on youth transition to employment in Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 36(2), pages 251-275, June.
    3. Maridueña-Larrea, Ángel & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The unemployment invariance hypothesis and the implications of added and discouraged worker effects in Latin America," MPRA Paper 115966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Brigitte Weber & Enzo Weber, 2018. "Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 33-58, February.
    5. Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2022. "Beyond the added-worker and the discouraged-worker effects: the entitled-worker effect," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2013. "Labour market forecasting : is disaggregation useful?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201314, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Muysken, Joan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2013. "Migration, unemployment, and skill downgrading : a specific-factors approach," IAB-Discussion Paper 201313, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Pauser, Johannes, 2013. "Capital mobility, imperfect labour markets, and the provision of public goods," IAB-Discussion Paper 201309, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "New insights into the development of regional unemployment disparities," IAB-Discussion Paper 201311, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Emilio Congregado & Ewa Galecka-Burdziak & Antonio A. Golpe & Robert Pater, 2021. "Separating aggregate discouraged and added worker effects: the case of a former transition country," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(3), pages 729-760, September.
    11. Mönnig, Anke & Zika, Gerd & Maier, Tobias, 2013. "Trade and qualification : linking qualification needs to Germany's export flows," IAB-Discussion Paper 201307, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model," IAB-Discussion Paper 201701, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Erwerbsbeteiligung ; Erwerbsbevölkerung ; Erwerbsquote ; Erwerbsverhalten ; geschlechtsspezifische Faktoren ; Konjunkturzyklus ; altersspezifische Faktoren ; Persistenz ; stille Reserve ; Arbeitslosenquote ; 1970-2011;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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