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Communal violence in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño

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  • Stijn van Weezel

    (School of Economics, University College Dublin)

Abstract

This study exploits a shift in Spring precipitation patterns in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño to examine the effect of climate change on conflict. Using data for Ethiopia and Kenya and focusing on communal conflict the regression analysis links districts that have experienced drier conditions since 1999 relative to 1981-1998 with higher conflict levels. This result is robust to different model specifications and changing outcome variable but does not generalise well to out-of-sample data. The cross-validation illustrates that the model linking droughts with conflict has a relatively poor predictive performance. The results also show that districts with substantial shares of pastoralism experience higher levels of communal violence, something that is well documented in the qualitative literature, but don’t face higher risks following decreases in precipitation levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Stijn van Weezel, 2017. "Communal violence in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño," HiCN Working Papers 241 updated, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:241
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    Cited by:

    1. Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Apocalypse now? - Climate change and war in Africa," Working Papers 201816, School of Economics, University College Dublin.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Horn of Africa; climate change; rainfall; communal violence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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