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Should we expect financial globalization to have significant effects on business cycles?

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Abstract

Empirical research suggests that financial globalization has insignificant effects on business cycles. Based on standard theoretical models it might be conjectured that the effects should be significant. I show that this conjecture is wrong. Theoretical effects of financial globalization can be determined to any level of precision by expanding the underlying artificial samples. In contrast, in the data the effects are imprecisely estimated because of short samples. I show that if the conclusion is based on empirically relevant sample sizes, a benchmark international real business cycle model predicts insignificant effects of financial integration for all business cycle statistics except the correlation of consumption. A sensitivity analysis shows that under alternative model structures even the effect on the consumption correlation is insignificant. My results suggest that we should not expect financial globalization to have significant effects on business cycles.

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  • Iversen, Jens, 2009. "Should we expect financial globalization to have significant effects on business cycles?," Discussion Papers on Economics 6/2009, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2009_006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Globalization; Business Cycles; Monte Carlo Methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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