IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/rbnkwp/0184.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exploring Interactions between Real Activity and the Financial Stance

Author

Listed:
  • Jacobson, Tor

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Lindé, Jesper

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Roszbach, Kasper

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

In this paper we empirically study interactions between real activity and the financial stance. Using aggregate data we examine a number of candidate measures of the financial stance of the economy. We find strong evidence for substantial spillover effects on aggregate activity from our preferred measure. Given this result, we use a large micro data-set for corporate firms to develop a macro-micro model of the interaction between the financial and real economy. This approach implies that the impulse responses of a given aggregate shock will depend on the portfolio structure of firms at any given point in time.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring Interactions between Real Activity and the Financial Stance," Working Paper Series 184, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0184
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.riksbank.se/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/wp_184.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    2. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    4. William Poole, 1993. "Credit veils and credit realities," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Spr), pages 83-85.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    7. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    8. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    9. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    10. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997. "Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
    11. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
    12. Altman, Edward I, 1971. "Railroad Bankruptcy Propensity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 333-345, May.
    13. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
    14. Englund, Peter, 1999. "The Swedish Banking Crisis: Roots and Consequences," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 80-97, Autumn.
    15. Platt, Harlan D. & Platt, Marjorie B., 1991. "A note on the use of industry-relative ratios in bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1183-1194, December.
    16. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2000. "Entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring: A model of the credit channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1931-1950, December.
    17. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114.
    18. Edward I. Altman, 1973. "Predicting Railroad Bankruptcies in America," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 184-211, Spring.
    19. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
    20. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    21. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 2001. "An analysis and critique of the BIS proposal on capital adequacy and ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 25-46, January.
    22. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    23. Ludvigson, Sydney, 1998. "The Channel of Monetary Transmission to Demand: Evidence from the Market for Automobile Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 365-383, August.
    24. Laitila, Thomas, 1993. "A pseudo-R2 measure for limited and qualitative dependent variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 341-355, April.
    25. Samolyk, Katherine A., 1994. "Banking conditions and regional economic performance evidence of a regional credit channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 259-278, October.
    26. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    27. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    28. Frydman, Halina & Altman, Edward I & Kao, Duen-Li, 1985. "Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 269-291, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Firm Default And Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 945-972, August.
    2. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Carling, Kenneth & Rönnegård, Lars & Roszbach, Kasper, 2004. "Is Firm Interdependence within Industries Important for Portfolio Credit Risk?," Working Paper Series 168, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
    6. Mundaca, B. Gabriela, 2007. "Corporate investment, cash flow level and market imperfections: The case of Norway," Memorandum 03/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics, revised 23 Feb 2009.
    7. M. A. Lagesh & Maram Srikanth & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Corporate Performance during Business Cycles: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1261-1274, October.
    8. Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
    9. Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2010. "The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 500-510, June.
    10. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2005. "Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 43-75, October.
    11. Giordani, Paolo & Jacobson, Tor & Schedvin, Erik von & Villani, Mattias, 2014. "Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 1071-1099, August.
    12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    13. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W. & Yamashiro, Guy M., 2007. "Bank loan portfolios and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 904-924, April.
    14. Driscoll, John C., 2004. "Does bank lending affect output? Evidence from the U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 451-471, April.
    15. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Stephan, Andreas & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2008. "Uncertainty determinants of corporate liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 833-849, September.
    16. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    18. Guler, Ozan & Mariathasan, Mike & Mulier, Klaas & Okatan, Nejat G., 2019. "The Real Effects of Credit Supply: Review, Synthesis, and Future Directions," MPRA Paper 96542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
    20. Harlan D. Platt & Marjorie B. Platt, 2008. "Financial Distress Comparison Across Three Global Regions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-34, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default-risk models; Business Cycles; Financial Stability; Price stability; Financial and real economy interaction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lena Löfgren (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbgovse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.