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Beyond the local mean-variance analysis in continuous time: The problem of non-normality

Author

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  • Aase, Knut K.

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Lillestøl, Jostein

    (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)

Abstract

The paper investigates the effects of deviations from normality on the estimates of risk premiums and the real equilibrium, short-term interest rate in the conventional rational expectations equilibrium model of Lucas (1978). We consider a time-continuous approach, where both the aggregate consumption process as well as cumulative dividends from risky assets are assumed to be jump-di usion processes. This approach allows for random jumps in the fundamental underlying processes at random time points. Preferences are time separable and additive. We derive testable expressions for these quantities, and confront these with 20. century sample estimates. Since there are non-linear components in the formulas for the risk premiums and the interest rate, we can readily explore what effect deviation from normality has on these quantities. Our results test the boundaries of the conventional model.

Suggested Citation

  • Aase, Knut K. & Lillestøl, Jostein, 2015. "Beyond the local mean-variance analysis in continuous time: The problem of non-normality," Discussion Papers 2015/11, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2015_011
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/277020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aase, Knut K., 2014. "Recursive utility and jump-diffusions," Discussion Papers 2014/9, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    2. Knut K. Aase, 1993. "A Jump/Diffusion Consumption‐Based Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 65-84, April.
    3. Xiaohong Chen & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Land of Addicts? An Empirical Investigation of Habit-Based Asset Pricing Behavior," NBER Working Papers 10503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Olivier Allais, 2004. "Local Substitution and Habit Persistence: Matching the Moments of the Equity Premium and the Risk-Free Rate," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 265-296, April.
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    9. Aase, Knut K., 1993. "Continuous trading in an exchange economy under discontinuous dynamics: A resolution of the equity premium puzzle," Scandinavian Journal of Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(Supplemen), pages 3-28.
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    13. Knut K. Aase, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing in the Presence of Cumulative Dividends Following a Diffusion," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 173-198, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aase, Knut K., 2014. "Recursive utility and jump-diffusions," Discussion Papers 2014/9, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    2. Aase, Knut K., 2020. "Elements of economics of uncertainty and time with recursive utility," Discussion Papers 2020/13, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mean-variance analysis; Consumption based CAPM; Equilibrium real interest rate; The equity premium puzzle; jump-diffusions; Bi-variate Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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