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The heterogeneous earnings impact of job lossacross workers, establishments, and markets

Author

Listed:
  • Athey, Susan

    (Stanford University)

  • Simon, Lisa

    (Revelio Labs)

  • Skans, Oskar

    (Dep. of Economics, Uppsala University)

  • Johan Vikström, Johan

    (IFAU; Dep. of Economics, Uppsala University)

  • Yakymovych, Yaroslav

    (Institute for Housing and Urban Research, Uppsala University)

Abstract

Using generalized random forests and rich Swedish administrative data, we show that the earnings effects of job displacement due to establishment closures are highly heterogeneous. We find as much heterogeneity within as across closing establishments, and within as across worker types defined by age and schooling. We display the potential of market-based policy interventions by showing that much of the heterogeneity across establishments is shared within markets. Several results suggest that the effect heterogeneity disfavors already vulnerable workers. Thus, targeted policy interventions may be justified to a larger extent than suggested by estimated average earnings effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Athey, Susan & Simon, Lisa & Skans, Oskar & Johan Vikström, Johan & Yakymovych, Yaroslav, 2024. "The heterogeneous earnings impact of job lossacross workers, establishments, and markets," Working Paper Series 2024:10, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Plant closures; heterogeneous effects; GRF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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