IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/hastef/0614.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Correlation Between Intensity and Recovery in Credit Risk Models

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We start by presenting a reduced-form multiple default type of model and derive abstract results on the influence of a state variable X on credit spreads, when both the intensity and the loss quota distribution are driven by X. The aim is to apply the results to a concrete real life situation, namely, to the influence of macroeconomic risks on credit spreads term structures. There has been increasing support in the empirical literature that both the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) are correlated and driven by macroeconomic variables. Paradoxically, there has been very little effort from the theoretical literature to develop credit risk models that would include this possibility. A possible justification has to do with the increase in complexity this leads to, even for the "treatable" default intensity models. The goal of this paper is to develop the theoretical framework needed to handle this situation and, through numerical simulation, understand the impact on credit risk term structures of the macroeconomic risks. In the proposed model the state of the economy is modeled trough the dynamics of a market index, that enters directly on the functional form of both the intensity of default and the distribution of the loss quota given default. Given this setup, we are able to make periods of economic depression, periods of higher default intensity as well as periods where low recovery is more likely, producing a business cycle effect. Furthermore, we allow for the possibility of an index volatility that depends negatively on the index level and show that, when we include this realistic feature, the impacts on the credit spread term structure are emphasized.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaspar, Raquel M. & Slinko, Irina, 2005. "Correlation Between Intensity and Recovery in Credit Risk Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 614, Stockholm School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0614
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/hastef/papers/hastef0614.pdf
    File Function: Complete Rendering
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:2:p:183-208 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gaspar, Raquel M. & Schmidt, Thorsten, 2005. "Quadratic Portfolio Credit Risk models with Shot-noise Effects," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 616, Stockholm School of Economics.
    3. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Agrawal, Deepak & Mann, Christopher, 2004. "Factors affecting the valuation of corporate bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2747-2767, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gaspar, Raquel M. & Schmidt, Thorsten, 2005. "Quadratic Portfolio Credit Risk models with Shot-noise Effects," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 616, Stockholm School of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katarzyna Platt, 2020. "Corporate Bonds And Product Market Competition," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 615-647, August.
    2. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Kose John & S. Abraham Ravid & Natalia Reisel, 2010. "The Notching Rule for Subordinated Debt and the Information Content of Debt Rating," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 489-513, June.
    4. François Coppens & Fernando Gonzáles & Gerhard Winkler, 2007. "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," Working Paper Research 118, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Schmidt, Thorsten & Stute, Winfried, 2007. "Shot-noise processes and the minimal martingale measure," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(12), pages 1332-1338, July.
    6. Cremers, Martijn & Driessen, Joost & Maenhout, Pascal & Weinbaum, David, 2008. "Individual stock-option prices and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2706-2715, December.
    7. Landschoot, Astrid Van, 2008. "Determinants of yield spread dynamics: Euro versus US dollar corporate bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2597-2605, December.
    8. Gann, Philipp & Laut, Amelie, 2008. "Einflussfaktoren auf den Credit Spread von Unternehmensanleihen," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4231, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    9. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    10. Blanka Francová, 2017. "Valuation of Government Bonds: the Exchange Rate Is an Important Aspect," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(6), pages 1911-1916.
    11. Dima Rahman, 2014. "Are banking systems increasingly fragile? Investigating financial institutions' CDS returns extreme co-movements," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 805-830, May.
    12. Bauer, Rob & Derwall, Jeroen & Pankratz, Nora, 2021. "Insider ownership, governance mechanisms, and corporate bond pricing around the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Ayturk, Yusuf & Asutay, Mehmet & Aksak, Ercument, 2017. "What explains corporate sukuk primary market spreads?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 141-149.
    14. Paiva, Eduardo Vieira dos Santos & Savoia, José Roberto Ferreira, 2009. "Pricing corporate bonds in Brazil: 2000 to 2004," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 62(9), pages 916-919, September.
    15. Song Han & Xing Zhou, 2014. "Informed Bond Trading, Corporate Yield Spreads, and Corporate Default Prediction," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 675-694, March.
    16. Audzeyeva, Alena & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner, 2010. "The role of country, regional and global market risks in the dynamics of Latin American yield spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 404-422, October.
    17. Horst Rottmann & Franz Seitz, 2004. "Credit Spreads und ihre Determinanten in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(24), pages 10-14, December.
    18. Zerbib, Olivier David, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 39-60.
    19. Brian BARNARD, 2017. "Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Decomposing Rating Migration Matrices from Market Data via Default Probability Term Structures," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 5(1), pages 49-72.
    20. Hammami, Yacine & Bahri, Maha, 2016. "On the determinants of expected corporate bond returns in Tunisia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 224-235.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; sistematic risk; intensity models; recovery; credit spreads;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0614. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Helena Lundin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erhhsse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.