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Should I Stay or Must I Go? Temporary Protection and Refugee Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Kilström, Matilda
  • Larsen, Birthe

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

  • Olme, Elisabet

Abstract

We study a Danish reform in 2002 that lowered the ex ante probability of refugees receiving permanent residency by prolonging the time period before they were eligible to apply for permanent residency. Assignment to the new rules was completely determined by the date of the asylum application and the reform was implemented retroactively. We formulate a simple search and matching model to derive predictions that can be tested using our data. Then we study the effects on educational and labor market outcomes and find that the reform significantly increased enrollment in formal education, especially for females and low skilled individuals. In terms of employment and earnings, coefficients are in general negative but non-significant. Other outcomes of interest are also studied. The reform had a negative impact on criminal activity driven by a reduction among males. There are no effects on health outcomes and significant but relatively small negative effects on childbearing for females. The results do not seem to be driven by selection, since the reform had no significant effect on the share that stayed in Denmark in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilström, Matilda & Larsen, Birthe & Olme, Elisabet, 2018. "Should I Stay or Must I Go? Temporary Protection and Refugee Outcomes," Working Papers 5-2018, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2018_005
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacob Nielsen Arendt & Christian Dustmann & Hyejin Ku, 2022. "Refugee migration and the labour market: lessons from 40 years of post-arrival policies in Denmark," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 531-556.
    2. Lars Højsgaard Andersen & Christian Dustmann & Rasmus Landersø, 2019. "Lowering Welfare Benefits: Intended and Unintended Consequences for Migrants and their Families," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1905, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    refugees; human capital; immigration law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law

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