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Do Temporary Demand Shocks have Long-Term Effects for Startups?

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Abstract

Using detailed procurement auctions and register data from Norway, we find that temporary demand shocks have long-term effects on startup outcomes. Startups that win a procurement auction are more than 20% larger in terms of sales and employment than startups that narrowly lose an auction, even several years after the contract work ends. For mature firms, we do not find long-term effects of auction wins. The persistent effects of temporary demand shocks for startups appear driven by learning-by-doing effects and by winning startups undertaking irreversible investments. The results point to the importance of path dependence in shaping the long-term outcomes of startups.

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  • Hvide, Hans K. & Meling, Tom G., 2019. "Do Temporary Demand Shocks have Long-Term Effects for Startups?," Working Papers in Economics 6/19, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:bergec:2019_006
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kory Kroft & Yao Luo & Magne Mogstad & Bradley Setzler, 2020. "Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry," Working Papers tecipa-666, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    3. Diana Bonfim & Sujiao Zhao & Miguel A. Ferreira, 2021. "Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop: The Government Procurement Channel," Working Papers w202109, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Pietro Santoleri & Andrea Mina & Alberto Di Minin & Irene Martelli, 2020. "The causal effects of R&D grants: evidence from a regression discontinuity," LEM Papers Series 2020/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Diana Bonfim & Miguel A. Ferreira & Francisco Queiro & Sujiao (Emma) Zhao, 2022. "Fiscal policy and credit supply: The procurement channel," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp644, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Entrepreneurship; Path-dependency; Productivity; Startups;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • G39 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Other
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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