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The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending

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  • Moulaye Bamba

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Louis Combes

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alexandru Minea

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In response to increasing debt paths, governments often implement fiscal consolidation programs. This paper studies the impact of these programs on the composition of government spending. System-GMM estimations performed on a sample of 53 developed and emerging countries over 1980-2011 reveal that fiscal consolidations significantly reduce the government investment-to-consumption ratio, i.e. a composition effect. Robust to a wide set of tests, this significantly stronger contraction of government investment with respect to government consumption is at work particularly when debt is high, for spending-based fiscal consolidations, in the low phase of the economic cycle, and following debt and stock market crises. Therefore, in such contexts, fiscal consolidations aimed at short-run stabilization may hurt the economy in the long-run through their detrimental effect on public investment, calling for a reflection upon how they could be re-designed to allow avoiding such undesirable consequences.

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  • Moulaye Bamba & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2019. "The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending," Working Papers halshs-02043892, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02043892
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02043892
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    3. Ardanaz, Martín & Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Puig, Jorge, 2021. "The Output Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Does Spending Composition Matter?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 11857, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini, 2022. "Market-Induced Fiscal Discipline in Europe," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 259-287, July.
    5. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2021. "Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 409-420.
    6. Jocelyne Zoumenou, 2023. "On the impact of fiscal policy on inflation: The case of fiscal rules," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Daniel Artana & Cynthia Moskovits & Jorge Puig & Ivana Templado, 2022. "Fiscal rules and the behavior of public investment: towards growth-friendly fiscal policy? The case of Argentina," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-23, August.
    8. Georgantas, Georgios & Kasselaki, Maria & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2023. "Τhe effects of fiscal consolidation in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Cezara Vinturis, 2023. "How do fiscal rules shape governments' spending behavior?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 322-341, April.
    10. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi & Phocenah Nyatanga, 2023. "Threshold of the CAPB That Can Be Attributed to Fiscal Consolidation Episodes in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-26, May.
    11. Ardanaz, Martín & Cavallo, Eduardo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Puig, Jorge, 2021. "Growth-friendly fiscal rules? Safeguarding public investment from budget cuts through fiscal rule design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    12. Olivier Jacques & Alain Noel, 2022. "Austerity Reduces Public Health Investment," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-02, CIRANO.
    13. Jacques, Olivier & Noël, Alain, 2022. "The politics of public health investments," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    14. Amine Lahiani & Ameni Mtibaa & Foued Gabsi, 2022. "Fiscal Consolidation, Social Sector Expenditures and Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from Emerging and Middle-Income Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(4), pages 710-747, December.
    15. Olegs Tkacevs, 2020. "Secular Decline in Public Investment: are National Fiscal Rules to Blame?," Working Papers 2020/04, Latvijas Banka.

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    Fiscal consolidation; Government consumption; Government investment;
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