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Les Structures Economiques Des Pays Du Maghreb : Convergence Ou Divergence Vis-A-Vis De L’Europe ?

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  • Kamel Malik Bensafta

    (Macroéconomie Finance - LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UHBC - Université Hassiba Ben Bouali de Chlef)

  • Gervasio Semedo

    (UT - Université de Tours, LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Dans ce papier, nous étudions le niveau de rapprochement des économies du Maghreb vers les économies de l'Europe de l'Ouest. Nous faisons également une comparaison avec le niveau de convergence des Pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale PECO-5 vers les pays de la zone euro. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons une modélisation VAR Structurelle pour l'identification des chocs d'offre et des chocs de demande. Nous faisons également appel à l'Analyse en composante Principale ACP dans l'étude de la dynamique de convergence. Nos résultats montrent un niveau différencié de rapprochement des économies des pays du Maghreb vers l'Europe : la Tunisie et le Maroc dans une moindre mesure, sont sur le sentier de la convergence et à un niveau qui se rapproche de celui des PECO-5 ; l'Algérie et la Libye restent très éloignés de la convergence en dépit de leur capacités. Ce résultat confirme le rôle important joué par le commerce bilatéral et plus particulièrement celui des produits manufacturés. La convergence de la Tunisie et du Maroc est également le fruit d'une dé-spécialisation de production des secteurs agroalimentaire et textile vers des secteurs moyennement et hautement technologiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamel Malik Bensafta & Gervasio Semedo, 2015. "Les Structures Economiques Des Pays Du Maghreb : Convergence Ou Divergence Vis-A-Vis De L’Europe ?," Working Papers halshs-01207725, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01207725
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01207725
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