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Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress a New Infectious Disease

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  • Stefan Pollinger

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper studies the suppression of an infectious disease in the canonical SIR model. It derives three results. First, if technically feasible, the optimal response to a sufficiently small outbreak is halting transmissions instead of building up immunity through infections. Second, the crucial tradeoff is not between health and economic costs but between the intensity and duration of control measures. A simple formula of observables characterizes the optimum. Third, the total cost depends critically on the efficiency of contact tracing since it allows relaxing costly social distancing without increasing transmissions. A calibration to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the theoretical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Pollinger, 2022. "Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress a New Infectious Disease," Working Papers hal-03793909, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03793909
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03793909v3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    COVID-19; Suppression; Eradication; Contact tracing;
    All these keywords.

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