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Inflation : retour d'une crainte ou crainte d'un retour ?

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Frédéric Reynés
  • Marion Cochard

Abstract

Industrialize countries and most of the developing ones managed to impose a low inflation in a context of floating exchange rates. This study wonders if this phenomenon is everlasting. First, we carry out a retrospective analysis on the evolution of inflation. It is argued that following adverse supply shocks in the 1970's, the rise in inflation was favored by the collapse of Bretton-Woods that imposed a nominal anchoring for exchange rates and thus for inflation. Then, we expose the three main factors which allowed the reduction of inflation from the very beginning of the 1980's in industrialized countries: changes in monetary policy strategy, implementation of structural reforms on goods and labor markets and globalization. Lastly, the risks of a possible come-back of inflation are evaluated in a prospective section.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Timbeau & Christophe Blot & Frédéric Reynés & Marion Cochard, 2006. "Inflation : retour d'une crainte ou crainte d'un retour ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459232, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03459232
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.099.0157
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03459232
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    Keywords

    Inflation; Système monétaire international; Politique monétaire;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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